Photo by: Bloomberg
US aerospace giant Boeing predicts, in its latest commercial market forecast, that over the next 20 years Africa (excluding Egypt, which the manufacturer includes in the Middle East) will need 1 170 aeroplanes, worth $160-billion. VP: Boeing International - Africa Miguel Santos stressed to journalists at a media briefing in Sandton on Wednesday that his company's forecasts were conservative.
Of the 1 170 airliners predicted, 960 will be to meet the growing market demand and the rest will replace aircraft currently in service. Of the total, 830 will be narrow-body or single-aisle aircraft, amounting to 71% in numerical terms and 56% in value terms, while 260 will be what Boeing calls small wide-body (or twin-aisle) airliners (such as the Boeing 787-8 and 787-9). Finally, there will likely be 40 medium wide-body airliners (such as the Boeing 777) worth $10-billion. No large wide-body aircraft (Boeing 747-8 or Airbus A380) are expected to be ordered by African airlines.
"We have an [African] economy that is growing, at about 4.7%. It's higher than any other region in the world," he pointed out. "We're seeing an enormous increase in the middle class in Africa." This means an increase in the number of people with disposable incomes, who can afford to travel.
"The are challenges with this demand," cautioned Santos, who hails from Angola. "When you have this many aircraft coming into the market -- how do we fly them? How do we maintain them? Do we have the infrastructure to handle all this travel?" Currently, he observed, Africa probably does not have the required number of airports, aviation facilities, pilots and maintainers.
"Human resources are a challenge in Africa," he noted. South Africa has pilot and maintainer training schools, but these do not really exist elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa. However, new airports have been, or are being, constructed, especially in Southern and East Africa. "The infrastructure is improving, but not enough."
For airlines to obtain new aircraft, they need financing. "Financing is available for African airlines, which is good," he reported. We can find funding for most of our [African] customers."
On the other hand, there is a shortage of good quality aviation regulatory authorities on the continent. They can almost be counted on the fingers of one hand. They include South Africa and Egypt.
"There are a few challenges in Africa," he summed up. "The are good opportunities. But we must face the challenges."