The National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa (Naamsa) says it expects the 2015 new-vehicle market to reach 603 000 units, substantially down from last year’s 644 504 units.
The association, however, projects a slight recovery in 2016, at 622 500 units.
Naamsa says in its third quarter business review that the total car market is expected to dip a substantial 8.5% in 2015, compared with 2014, from 439 264 units to 402 000 units, with next year seeing a slight increase to 415 000 units.
The bakkie, minibus and van market will also dip slightly this year, to 171 000 units, down from 173 689 units, before rebounding to 176 000 units in 2016.
The truck market will this year decline to 30 000 units from the 31 551 units recorded in 2014, with Naamsa forecasting an uptick to 31 500 units in 2016.
Naamsa expects exports and local production – on the back of increased exports – to deliver the only good news for 2015.
Exports are expected to jump to 344 000 units for 2015, up from 276 873 units last year. Next year should look even better, at 386 100 units.
Local production is expected to set a new record in 2015, at 622 000 units, up 10% from the 566 083 units last year. Naamsa forecasts another record for 2016, at 674 600 units.
The underlying trend in domestic sales continued to reflect a slow, but steady decline, Naamsa says in its report.
“Subdued levels of economic activity, coupled with various other economic factors, have combined to weaken business and consumer confidence in South Africa.
“The outlook for business and consumer spending has deteriorated in recent months contributing to lower new-vehicle sales, particularly new cars.
“In contrast to the challenging domestic trading environment, vehicle production remains on a firm footing and substantially higher new-vehicle exports should continue to support the industry’s production levels and South Africa’s balance of payments through 2016 and beyond.”