US technology consultant Doug Newcomb is confident the cars we drive now will change completely over the next 25 years – and he is not referring to the continued push in drivetrain technology to replace the internal combustion engine with batteries or fuel cells.
With technology “evolving at breakneck speed”, drivers are in “for some really interest- ing changes”, he predicts.
The biggest of these changes will probably be the move to the driverless car, or autonomous driving, as it is also called, enabled by a host of vehicle sensors, radar systems and cameras.
Newcomb views the shift to this technology as similar to the move, more than 100 years ago, from horse-drawn carriages to ‘horseless carriages’, as cars were described shortly after their invention.
Already there are several manufacturers developing cars that can drive autonomously. Technology companies are also involved, such as Google, as is component maker Continental.
One example is a Mercedes-Benz experi-mental vehicle, the S500 Intelligent Drive, which recently travelled 103 km autonomously in a test which executed more than 20 years of research.
The vehicle, with a somewhat nervous engineer behind the wheel, travelled on German highways and through small villages all by itself, with the ‘driver’s’ hands and feet not touching the controls.
Mercedes-Benz South Africa president and CEO Dr Martin Zimmermann says the technology to allow autonomous driving already exists.
It is, after all, technologies such as lane-keep assist and adaptive cruise control that underpin autonomous driving, and these have been on the market for quite some time already.
The 2014 European S-Class already sports Stop & Go Pilot, which allows the driver to let the sedan drive itself in peak-hour traffic at low speeds.
The vehicle will follow the car in front of it autonomously, adjusting steering, only up to 15˚, to stay in the lane, while also braking and accelerating appropriately. It will, however, sound an alarm if the driver’s hands are off the steering wheel for more than ten seconds.
In an announcement at the Frankfurt Auto show in September, Nissan moved up its timetable on self-driving cars to 2020. Others are set to follow.
However, there will be bumps on the road towards autonomous driving, warns Newcomb. Regulators will have to step in and police this brave new world – perhaps in the same way that they had to devise traffic signals once the horse-drawn carriage disappeared.
Autonomous driving “really changes who can participate in driving”, while it also enables an accident-free environment, says Newcomb.
Other than cars operated by men and women, autonomous cars stop at stop streets and red traffic lights, and do not speed.
Hard-core drivers who love the physical act of driving will perhaps view autonomous driving as nanny technology, says Newcomb, but it should find favour with commuters facing the daily grind of getting to the office. And what about older people, who are no longer able to drive? The blind? The disabled? Children? People without driver’s licences?
Will you need a driver’s licence?
Will you need airbags in a vehicle if all vehicles on the road are autonomous, and working towards a zero-accident environment?
Will cars need to be made of high-strength steel?
Will it matter if the vehicle’s occupants are intoxicated?
A high-tech car will also require more of dealers and service technicians – both in maintaining the vehicle and training drivers on the use of autonomous driving systems.
Autonomous driving opens up a host of possibilities that require a hard look at the legal environment, says Newcomb.