European major airliner manufacturer Airbus has forecast, in its latest Global Market Forecast, that the world will require 33 000 new commercial aircraft, worth $5.2-trillion, over the next 20 years. The forecast was released by the company at the recent Farnborough International Airshow. This figure is made up of 32 425 airliners (with more than 100 seats each) and 645 freighter aircraft (with a capacity greater than 10 t).
This demand will be driven by an annual increase in passenger numbers of 4.5% and, by 2035, the global commercial aircraft fleet will total nearly 40 000, twice today’s number of 19 500. During this period, about 13 000 existing airliners and air freighters will be replaced by new, more fuel efficient, aircraft.
In the single-aisle sector, the company predicts a demand for more than 23 500 new aircraft, with a value of $2.4-trillion. Single-aisle aircraft will account for 71% of the total demand for new aircraft. Airbus noted that its A320 and A320neo (new engine option) families were the world market leaders in this category.
Regarding wide-body aircraft, the company expects a demand for 9 500 airliners and freighters, worth $2.8-trillion. This represents 29% of the total market demand. Airbus defines wide-bodies as airliners capable of taking from 200 to more than 600 passengers. The company cites its A330, A330neo, A350 XWB and A380 airliners as representing the “most comprehensive” range in this category.
It expects a continuing trend towards greater capacity aircraft, pointing out that this trend started in the 1980s and that larger aircraft have grown by 40% since then. Larger aircraft make more efficient use of limited landing and takeoff “slots” at large airports while also allowing for increased passenger traffic growth, citing the example of the A380 at London Heathrow Airport.
“While established European and North American markets will continue to grow, Asia-Pacific is the engine powering growth in the next 20 years,” highlighted Airbus COO: customers John Leahy. “China will soon be the world’s biggest aviation market and together with emerging economies, further population concentration, and wealth creation, together these will help to fuel strong air traffic growth.” The Asia-Pacific region will account for 46% of new wide-body and 39% of new single-aisle deliveries.
“We are ramping up production to meet market demand for our leading aircraft products and we will also ramp up our customer service offerings to meet the increasing demands of air transportation,” he added. “These new aircraft will require, the company forecasts, 560 000 new pilots to fly them and 540 000 new engineers and technicians to maintain them.