Demand for air travel is expected to nearly double from 3.8-billion air passengers in 2016 to 7.2-billion passengers in 2035, mostly on the back of surging growth from the Asia-Pacific region, the International Air Transport Association (Iata) said in a recent statement.
Iata believes that more than half of the expected new passengers over the next two decades will originate from China, which will displace the US as the world’s largest aviation market by around 2029, noted Iata director-general and CEO Alexandre de Juniac.
China will add 817-million new passengers, bringing its total passengers to 1.3-billion, while India’s passenger numbers are expected to grow from the current 322-million passengers to 442-million during the period under review.
“India will displace the UK for third place in 2026, while Indonesia enters the top ten at the expense of Italy,” added De Juniac.
Passenger growth in developing markets will increase. Over the past decade, their share of total passenger traffic increased from 24% to 40% and is expected to continue increasing.
“Overall, routes to, from and within Asia-Pacific will see an extra 1.8-billion yearly passengers by 2035, for an overall market size of 3.1-billion. Its yearly average growth rate of 4.7% will be the second-highest, behind the Middle East.”
The North American region will grow by 2.8% a year, carrying some 1.3-billion passengers by 2035, while Europe will deliver the slowest growth rate of 2.5%, but will still add an additional 570-million passengers a year.
Africa will grow by 5.1%, adding an extra 192-million passengers a year for a total market of 303-million passengers by 2035.
The forecast is based on a 3.7% average compound annual growth rate and presents three scenarios, predicting that growth will put pressure on infrastructure that is already struggling to cope with demand.
“Runways, terminals, security and baggage systems, air traffic control and a whole raft of other elements need to be expanded to be ready for the growing number of flyers. It cannot be done by the industry alone. Planning for change requires governments, communities and the industry working together in partnership,” said De Juniac.