The demise of second-generation (2G) technologies, such as GSM/EDGE, will likely start in 2018, as it loses its dominance, a new report by telecommunications market research and consulting firm TeleGeography has found.
The GlobalComms Forecast Service revealed that, while 2G remained the dominant wireless technology globally, accounting for 70% of the world’s 6.8-billion mobile subscribers, 2G subscribers declined for the first time in 2013, falling 3% to 4.8-billion.
By 2018, the report forecast that 2G would no longer account for the majority of the mobile market, representing 42% of global subscribers, as the migration from 2G to third-generation (3G) technology, such as WCDMA/HSPA, and long-term evolution (LTE) was already “well under way in much of the world”.
“The move from 2G technologies is most advanced in North America, where 3G and LTE accounted for more than 80% of wireless subscribers at year-end 2013 and are projected to reach 93% of subscriptions by 2018,” explained TeleGeography analyst Mark Gibson.
He noted that, over the next five years, mobile subscribers using 3G or LTE technologies, in Western Europe, were expected to jump from 50% to 86%.
The latest Ericsson Mobility Report explained that developing regions remained dominated by 2G technologies, while developed ones were dominated by 3G.
However, in all regions, 2G would remain a fallback and complementary network technology for 3G and 4G subscriptions where coverage was missing.
“While global 2G subscribers are declining, a mass shutdown of 2G networks remains far off, particularly in emerging markets in Africa and Asia,” added Gibson.
“Growth has shifted to 3G and LTE services, but 2G is projected to serve nearly 3.5-billion of the world’s 8.3-billion mobile subscribers in 2018.”
Uptake of 3G and LTE technologies in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and Latin America, which accounted for less than 30% of mobile subscribers last year, would be “more gradual”.
The 2G subscriber shares in 2018 were projected to reach about 37% in Eastern Europe and 51% in the Middle East.
“Africa stands out as the only world region where 2G subscribers are projected to increase between 2013 and 2018,” Gibson noted.