Mohamed is the director of the Corporate Strategy and Industrial Development Research Programme in the School of Economic and Business Sciences at the University of the Witwatersrand.
Aug 01, 2008
High global inflation is a fact that we will have to live with for the next year or two. There are optimistic views that the cycle will reverse in the first or second quarter next year but I think it will last longer than that. The question for South Africa is how...
Jul 25, 2008
The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Economic Development (OECD) recently launched its Economic Assessment of South Africa publication.
Jul 18, 2008
In mainstream economics, there is an assumption that savings will be equal to investment in an economy.
Jul 11, 2008
The next stage of the global financial crisis may befall us soon. It is being caused by huge defaults in credit card repayments. Similar to the subprime crisis, the roots of the next stage are in abominably poor lending practices driven by the huge growth in...
Jul 04, 2008
The prospects for a global recession seem more likely every day. The prices of almost everything are going up. The global credit crunch is really starting to squeeze and its grip will tighten.
Jun 20, 2008
Economists and financiers are fond of using technical-sounding words when a simple phrase could more easily explain their meaning. ‘Deleveraging’ has suddenly become popular in the business media.
Jun 13, 2008
Recent newspaper headlines said that South African house prices are set to drop by 40 percent. The bubble has burst. I have argued that South Africa had a house price bubble. Alan Greenspan, former US Fed chief, famously commented that one can only tell if there is...
Jun 06, 2008
A year ago, the banks and large real estate agencies were telling us that average increases in South African house prices were lower but that house prices would not decline.
May 02, 2008
The Pew Center put out a report in February 2008 that estimated that about 1% of the US population is incarcerated. Their report said that at the beginning of this year 2,319,258 Americans were in jail or prison. They argue that this rate of incarceration is the...
Apr 18, 2008
South Africa and the world face massive price increases. The poor are going hungry. Workers are losing their jobs. The costs of necessary infrastructure projects are increasing significantly. Aggregate demand is crashing and economic growth is declining all over the...
Apr 11, 2008
South Africa’s economic growth over the last decade can be characterised as growth driven by the affluent. This period of relatively good economic growth can also be said to have increased inequality and to not have been environment friendly.
Apr 04, 2008
The collapse of Bear Sterns shows that South Africa is acutely affected by daily events in US financial markets. The collapses and the recoveries in US equities markets drive our share prices up and down. The actions of the US Federal Reserve Board influence the rand...
Mar 28, 2008
South Africans do not seem to realise that they will have to make big changes to their lives to improve the crime problem. They seem to think that crime is government's problem.
Mar 21, 2008
A friend recently asked me what I thought was happening to the economy. My answer was that we are not in a happy situation.
Mar 14, 2008
Many South Africans aspire to own their own homes. A huge percentage of our population lives in informal settlements. Too many South Africans lack the security and safety of a formal home. Government policies and programmes and private-sector developers and...
Mar 07, 2008
Minister of Finance Trevor Manuel announced further liberalisation of South Africa's international financial relations during his Budget speech. He said that there would be a move to scrap exchange controls and to entirely use prudential regulations. Manuel...
Feb 29, 2008
How meaningful is South Africa’s inflation rate target? The consumer price index excluding mortgages (CPIX) used to gauge inflation rates in South Africa has been outside of the three to six percent target band for about nine months now. The Reserve Bank (SARB)...
Feb 22, 2008
There have been a number of fundamental flaws in the economic perspectives of senior South African policymakers that have shaped our economic policies. One of the most important conceptual flaws is the result of government policymakers believing that they should not...
Feb 15, 2008
The South African Reserve Bank’s monetary policy committee (MPC) chose not to increase interest rates again last month. There was a collective sigh of relief across the country when interest rates remained unchanged. Even as the latest inflation figures...
Feb 08, 2008
South African policymakers finally seem to have realised that ‘nontraditional' exports are important. There were many people inside and outside government arguing that the South African economy has to build its industrial base and reduce its reliance on...
Feb 01, 2008
The losses resulting from the contagion of the US subprime crisis continue to be felt around the world. The fallout has reached as far as the Arctic Circle. Four remote Norwegian towns invested and lost millions in collateralised debt products.
Jan 25, 2008
South Africa continues to be a highly unequal society, even though there has been a transition from racial oppression, under apartheid, to democracy.
Jan 18, 2008
The lesson of 2007 is that greed and gorging will catch up with you. I’m not talking about Christmas lunch.