Despite a marginal uptick in the theft of copper in South Africa from R11.1-million worth of the element in January to R11.2-million in February, the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Sacci) believed the downward momentum seen in 2012 should continue into 2013 albeit with some increases along the way.

The release of Sacci’s latest monthly Copper Theft Barometer came as the theft of some 370 m of signalling cable for the Gautrain had delayed trains travelling between Midrand and Centurion on Wednesday morning, stranding commuters.

The increase in copper theft was observed despite a dramatic decrease in the international spot price of copper to an average of $7 711/t at the beginning of March from $8 062/t in February – a contraction of 4.3% on a monthly basis and 8.9% lower than a year before.

However, Sacci believed that improved policing had the potential to reduce the level of copper theft over time, regardless of the price trend.

The chamber reported in its latest Copper Theft Barometer that the primary assumption was that the consolidation of sovereign debt problems in developed economies should place upward pressure on the copper price this year.

“However, most commodities have seen high volatility over the past year, with Brent crude oil spiking at $118 a barrel in mid-February to settle at $109 in mid-March,” the chamber explained.

Copper, it reported, was no exception and was equally vulnerable to a volatile economic environment influenced by high hopes for rapid global economic growth tempered by the occasional news of yet additional sovereign debt crises.

“While there is a strong relationship between the incidence level of copper theft and the international copper price, this is a cyclical relationship that can be influenced by structural changes within the domestic environment,” the report noted.

Meanwhile, copper waste exports decreased to $37.3-million in December, from the end-year peak of $43-million in November, with the outlook remaining positive despite a slight increase in the barometer for February.

Moreover, New Growth Path coordinating body, the Economic Development Department, had developed a policy proposal to place restrictions on the export of waste metal products as a way to halt the long-term trend of deindustrialisation in South Africa.

The restriction on waste metal exports would be by way of a statutory preference price together with a 30-day export waiting period.