Over the next ten years the global market for armoured and counter-IED (improvised explosive device) vehicles is expected to expand at a compound annual growth rate of 2%. This is the forecast from ASDReports, part of the ASD Media group, released on Wednesday.

By 2023, the market for these categories of vehicles should be worth $28.7-billion. The total value of armoured and counter-IED vehicles acquired from this year to 2023 is expected to be $279-billion.

This expansion will be driven by an increasing number of international coalition operations, including peacekeeping operations and even disaster relief operations. The countries participating in these and other international operations will need vehicles that meet North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato) standards (which are used by many countries that are not members of Nato) and which are thus interoperable with major partners in such operations.

However, major countries are not likely to drive this expansion. With the war in Iraq over and international forces starting to withdraw from Afghanistan, the mine resistant ambush protected (better known as Mrap) section of the market is expected to shrink drastically. The US has stopped buying Mraps and plans to redeploy 60% of its remaining operational fleet to storage (both in the US and prepositioned in locations outside the US) and 10% to training units, leaving only 30% with operational units.

Defence spending in countries such as France, Germany, Japan, the UK and US has been, or is set to be, cut. Washington has already programmed defence cuts of $487-billion during the next ten years. This figure excludes cuts that would come into force if the so-called sequester (the 2011 Budget Control Act) comes into force on March 1. This would cut US government discretionary spending by $1.2-trillion between now and 2023, including a further $500-billion in defence cuts.