The patronage guarantee government pays to Bombela, the operator of the Gautrain system, has dropped from between R80-million and R85-million a month last year to between R70-million and R75-million a month this year, says Gautrain Management Agency CEO Jack van der Merwe.

The decrease is the result of an increasing ridership on the public transport system. Average weekday passenger trips on the train increased from 26 000 at the beginning of April 2012 to 42 000 at the end of March.

Gautrain bus trip users are increasing at an average rate of 6.6% a month, while Gautrain ridership is growing at an average of 2.1%.

According to the agreement between government and Bombela, signed at the onset of the R26-billion project, a patronage guarantee is payable to the operator to ensure it covers all its costs, while still making a reasonable profit.

It is expected that the guarantee payable will decrease as fare box income increases, with a 50:50 profit sharing system between government and Bombela applicable once the fare box reaches a state where all Bombela’s costs are covered.

The costs include operational costs, maintenance and replacement costs and the servicing of loans. Its income includes fare box revenue, value-add income (such as advertising revenue), and then the patronage guarantee to make up the shortfall.

Van der Merwe emphasises that public transport is subsidised worldwide, and that the Gautrain is no different. Metrorail is also heavily subsidised, at roughly two-thirds of ticket costs.

He expects to reach the profit sharing phase of the concession “in a few years’ time”.

Fare box income will, in the meantime, show improvement in June as Gautrain ticket prices are set to increase by 6%. However, there will be a 15% reduction in fares during the off-peak period, between 09h00 and 15h00.

This pricing structure is an attempt to flatten out a user curve that showed sharp peaks from Tshwane to Johannesburg in the mornings, and in the opposite direction in the afternoons.

Van der Merwe adds that additional train capacity will be implemented in June, when yet another four-car train will become an eight-car train, while it is also possible to change the seating arrangement on the train to accommodate more standing passengers. Trains could also run at a ten-minute headway, and not 12 minutes during peak hours, as is currently the case.

With many station parking areas also at capacity, the system is set to have 259 additional parking bays at Rhodesfield station, 150 at Pretoria station and 1 800 at the popular Centurion station.

Van der Merwe says that cost benefit analyses are currently being conducted on four possible extensions of the Gautrain route. He emphasises that any extension will have to make money sense to government.

As to whether the political will exists to expand the Gautrain footprint – with the construction of the rail system initially met with a rather chilly response from the national government – Gauteng MEC for Roads and Transport Ismail Vadi says it is clear that rail will need to become the backbone of public transport in Gauteng, as the province’s population is set to double in the next few years.

However, whether this “inescapable reality” will benefit Metrorail or the Gautrain – or both – is not clear. Costs will play a “vital role” in making this decision.

Vadi acknowledges, though, that the poor and middle class are both in need of public transport solutions, especially as the province’s population numbers expand.

He adds that 2014 will also see the introduction of a new set of government leaders, following a national election.

Although not said, this could imply a possible delay in project execution or a change in policy direction.