Global airline passenger traffic is likely to grow at a rate of 4.7% a year over the next 20 years, driving the need for around 31 400 new passenger and freighter aircraft – worth an estimated $4.6-trillion – by 2033, airline manufacturer Airbus’s Global Market Forecast has revealed.

The global passenger and freighter fleet was expected to increase from today’s 18 500 aircraft to 37 500 by 2033 – an increase of nearly 19 000 aircraft – while around 12 400 older, less fuel-efficient passenger and freighter aircraft would be retired over this period.

The report stated that, increased urbanisation and concentration of wealth, particularly in emerging countries, would double the number of global
aviation “megacities” worldwide to 91.

These cities would generate 35% of world gross domestic product and were expected to support 95% of all long-haul traffic.

“Aviation is growing impressively and our latest forecast confirms its long-term growth. While mature aviation regions, such as Europe and North America, will continue to grow, Asia will stand out along with emerging markets for dynamic development,” commented Airbus COO John Leahy.

In the widebody market, Airbus predicted a continuing trend towards larger models, with aircraft flying on longer-haul routes.

As a result, the company forecast a requirement for nearly 9 300 widebody passenger and freighter aircraft over the next 20 years, valued at some $2.5-trillion.

This represented 30% of all new aircraft deliveries over the forecast period and 55% by value and would include some 7 800 twin-aisle aircraft with between 250 and 400 seats and 1 500 “very large” aircraft with over 400 seats for operation on the busiest routes.

“We see particularly strong growth in widebody twins, such as our A350 XWB and A330neo. Demand exceeds supply for these new-generation aircraft, so naturally we are studying production increases on both models,” he outlined.

The first A350 XWB would be delivered later this year, while the first A330neo would be completed in 2017.

Almost half of the new passenger widebodies would be delivered to carriers based in the Asia-Pacific region, followed by the Middle East (16%), Europe (15%) and North America (9%).

Airbus believed it would be especially well placed to win a leading share of the widebody market, with its A330, A350 and A380 fleet offering.

Meanwhile, in the single-aisle market, the latest Airbus forecast saw a requirement for over 22 000 new aircraft worth $2.1-trillion over the next 20 years – an increase of 2 000 aircraft compared with the previous forecast.

Demand for these aircraft was likely to continue to remain high in markets such as Europe and North America, taking delivery of some 22% and 21% single-aisle aircraft respectively.

However, demand from both regions would soon be overtaken by accelerating demand for single-aisle aircraft in Asia, which would be driven primarily by the domestic markets in China and India, as well as the growing low-cost segment in South East Asia.