European airliner manufacturer Airbus predicts, in its latest Global Market Forecast, that over the next 20 years (from this year until 2032) air traffic will grow at an annual rate of 4.7%. This will be the result of economic growth, migration, urbanisation, rising middle classes, affordability, ease of travel and tourism, among other factors. A key effect of these devel-opments will be the more than doubling of the number of the world’s megacities from the current 42 to 89 by 2032. Airbus predicts that 99% of global long-haul air traffic will be between or through these megacities.

“By 2032, Asia-Pacific will lead the world in traffic, overtaking Europe and North America,” states Airbus COO: customers John Leahy. “Today, on average, a fifth of the population of the emerging markets take a flight annually and, by 2032, this will swell to two-thirds. “The attraction of air travel means that passenger numbers will more than double from today’s 2.9-billion to 6.7-billion by 2032, clearly demonstrating aviation’s essential role in economic growth.”

In consequence, the aviation sector will require more than 29 220 new airliners and freighter aircraft worth almost $4.4-trillion by 2032. Of these, about 28 350 will be airliners worth more than $4.1-trillion. Around 10 400 of these new aircraft will be used to replace existing, less efficient aeroplanes. As the world’s current airliner and freighter fleet totals 17 740 aircraft, this means that the global commercial aircraft fleet will more than double to almost 36 540 aeroplanes.

Airliner Demand

The biggest regional market for these new aircraft will be Asia-Pacific, which will enjoy an above-average annual air traffic growth rate of 5.5% and so account for 36% of the new airliner demand. Europe will be in second place, with 20%, followed by North America, with 19%. Domestic air traffic is also expected to see strong growth, with India leading the way at almost 10% and Brazil and China in joint second place, with 7% each.

In terms of aircraft cate-gories, single-aisle (or narrow- body) aeroplanes will make up the majority of the new types that will be acquired. Deliveries are expected to reach 20 242, amounting to 71% of the new aircraft being acquired. Low-Cost Carriers Their value will be $1.82-tril-lion. Of these new aeroplanes, 34% will go to Asia-Pacific, while Europe and North America will each take 23%. The development and spread of low-cost carriers (LCCs) is opening new markets and driving the increasing demand for single-aisle aircraft. Airbus expects LCCs to increase their market share from 17% today to 21% by 2032.

The demand for twin-aisle, or wide-body, aircraft will be 6 779, worth $1.82-trillion. Asia-Pacific will take 48% of these, with Europe next at 15% and the Middle East third at 13%. The need for very large aircraft (such as the A380 Superjumbo) will total 1 334 passenger aeroplanes, with a value of $519-million. Again, the main mar-ket will be Asia-Pacific, which will take 47%, with the Middle East in second place with 26% and Europe in third place with 16%. “Asia-Pacific’s requirement for the A380 is demonstrated by the region’s growth in middle classes, which is set to quadruple in Asia-Pacific in 20 years,” said the company in a press release.

In addition to increasing the numbers of aircraft they operate, airlines are also increasing the size of their aeroplanes. The average size of airliners has increased by 25%, Airbus reported. And, over the past 40 years, commercial aircraft fuel consumption and noise emissions have both been reduced by at least 70%.