The US Agency for International Development (Usaid) has developed a geospatial model for the Zambian Ministry of Energy and the Rural Electrification Authority (REA) to identify areas without power and determine the least-cost electrification solutions for each household in Zambia to enable universal access by 2030.

The Usaid Southern Africa Energy Programme-developed tool presents the lowest-cost electrification options, such as grid extension, minigrids or solar home systems, and shows how they can play a significant role in electrification for a significant portion of the rural population.

The model outlines scenarios, trends and data surrounding the costs of technologies, new transmission and distribution infrastructure to enable decision-makers to review targets and strategies to achieve universal access.

The Zambia Electrification Geospatial Model executive summary shows that just over one-million households are already electrified in Zambia, while 2.1-million households remain without access.

“There are significant opportunities for the model to help shape electrification strategy, with both potential targets against technology types and a cost estimate,” the report says.

Only 27% of rural residents have access to power, which the government of Zambia aims to increase to 66%.

This target will require 3.4-million new connections to the grid, which will be a costly undertaking.

The geospatial tool indicates that only 34% of unserved households should be serviced by the grid, with offgrid solutions servicing the other 66%.

“In the immediate term, solar home systems and grid extension are the most affordable technologies for most households. For example, if all households were electrified by 2022 in Zambia, solar home systems would account for 75%, or two-million households, of the least-cost new connections and grid connections would account for 25%,” the report notes.

By 2030, solar home systems are expected to remain the most prevalent technology, accounting for 58% to 68% of the optimal mix, while grid connections would account for 34% of newly electrified households.

Minigrids have the potential to become cost competitive, accounting for 1% to 8% of the optimal mix.

“About $4-billion would be needed to achieve this universal access target by 2030, with $3.3-billion being accounted for by solar home systems,” Usaid says.

The model will be owned by the Ministry of Energy and the REA to inform their decision-making.

“Together with the Ministry of Energy, the World Bank will build on the model to develop a more detailed electrification masterplan for implementation in coming years,” the agency adds.