Strong African aviation growth predicted by US manufacturer

17th July 2015

By: Keith Campbell

Creamer Media Senior Deputy Editor

  

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US aerospace giant Boeing predicts, in its latest commercial market forecast, that over the next 20 years, Africa (excluding Egypt, which the manufacturer includes in the Middle East) will need 1 170 new aeroplanes, worth $160-billion. VP: Boeing International – Africa Miguel Santos stressed to journalists at a recent media briefing in Sandton, north of Johannesburg, that his company’s forecasts were conservative. In addition, the continent’s airline fleet will include another 480 aircraft that are now in service and will be retained.

“We have an [African] economy that is growing, at about 4.7%. It’s higher than any other region in the world,” he pointed out. “We’re seeing an enormous increase in the middle class in Africa.” This means an increase in the number of people with disposable incomes, who can afford to travel.

“There are challenges with this demand,” cautioned Santos, who hails from Angola. “When you have this many aircraft coming into the market – how do we fly them? How do we maintain them? Do we have the infrastructure to handle all this travel?” Currently, he observed, Africa probably does not have the required number of airports, aviation facilities, pilots and maintainers.

Between 2012 and 2031, the continent will need 14 500 new pilots and 16 200 new technicians. The world as a whole will require 460 000 new pilots and 601 000 new technicians. “Human resources are a challenge in Africa,” he noted. South Africa has pilot and maintainer training schools, but these do not really exist elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa. However, new airports have been, or are being, constructed, especially in Southern and East Africa. “The infrastructure is improving, but not enough.”

For airlines to obtain new aircraft, they need financing. “Financing is available for African airlines, which is good,” he reported. “We can find funding for most of our [African] customers.” Boeing Capital, the group’s financing business, already works closely with African banks, including major South African banks and banks in Angola, Ethiopia, Libya, Morocco, Nigeria and Tanzania (as well as Egypt). Moreover, the number of African banks interested in financing aircraft acquisitions is growing.

On the other hand, there is a shortage of good-quality aviation regulatory authorities on the continent. They can almost be counted on the fingers of one hand. They include South Africa and Egypt. Boeing has suggested that four regional aviation regulatory authorities be established across the continent, under the aegis of the four most important regional economic communities, namely the Arab Maghreb Union, the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa, the Economic Community of West African States and the Southern African Development Community.

“There are a few challenges in Africa,” he summed up. “There are good opportunities. But we must face the challenges.”

Of the 1 170 new airliners forecast to be required, 960 will be to meet the growing market demand and the rest will replace aircraft currently in service. Of the total, 830 will be narrow-body or single-aisle aircraft, amounting to 71% in numerical terms and 56% in value terms. Another 260 will be what Boeing calls small wide-body (or twin-aisle) airliners (such as the Boeing 787-8 and 7879), accounting for 22% in numerical and 37% in value terms. There will likely be 40 medium wide-body airliners (such as the Boeing 777), worth $10-billion, representing 3% in numbers and 6% in value. No large wide-body aircraft (Boeing 747-8 or Airbus A380) are expected to be ordered by African airlines. There will also be some 40 regional jets acquired, a segment in which Boeing does not compete.

Strikingly, Boeing’s 20-year forecasts for African commercial aviation have been continuously increasing since 2008. Thus, last year, the forecast was for 1 080 new airliners – so there has been an increase of 90 in just one year. Back in 2012, the prediction was for 900, in 2010 for 710 and in 2008 for 560 – the forecast has more than doubled in just seven years.

Edited by Martin Zhuwakinyu
Creamer Media Senior Deputy Editor

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