South Africa must be careful in its choice of future energy sources and must use different technologies for different requirements. “When we choose sources of energy – electricity – we must choose wisely and responsibly,” argued independent energy consultant Andrew Kenny at the recent Nuclear African 2013 conference. “We must work with nature, not against her. We must act with logic.”

He pointed out that the country required three different categories of electricity supply: small-scale, off-the-grid, grid peaking power and grid baseload power. Small-scale off-the-grid power was needed for farms, houses, clinics and schools in remote areas. “This involves very small amounts of electricity. Wind and solar [power] are excellent for this.”

Wind and solar power are also excellent for substituting for electricity in certain roles, even in urban areas. “Solar water heaters are a very good idea,” he pointed out. “Wind pumps for water pumping on farms are a very good idea.

There are 300 000 wind water pumps in South Africa – it’s a wonderful machine.”

However, for grid peaking power, solar, wind and nuclear energy are all useless, but “gas is excellent”. He noted that, when the Darling wind farm (in the Western Cape) was being planned, it was predicted that it would have an average output (load factor) of 31% of its capacity. In reality, its average load factor has been 13.9%. And the output of all wind power plants around the world is very erratic.

“For the South African economy to grow, it must beneficiate its raw materials to increase manufacturing and produce more high-value goods. This requires large amounts of baseload power,” affirmed Kenny. “There are only two options [for South Africa] for baseload right now – coal and nuclear.” Currently, most of the country’s electricity is produced using coal. In the future, shale gas (extracted by fracking) and hydroelectricity imported from Central Africa are likely to be options (although there are security issues regarding Central Africa).

“For now, nuclear is best,” he asserted. “You must consider it over the full energy cycle – to decommissioning and disposal.” A modern nuclear power plant will have a life of about 60 years. Its fuel is cheap. And nuclear plants record high load factors – 90% in the US and South Korea.

“Nuclear is the safest source of energy – by far the safest. Nothing else comes close.” He noted that, from 1969 to 2000, there had been 1 119 accidents in the coal mining industry worldwide that had killed five or more people. (China’s State Administration of Work Safety has reported that 1 384 Chinese coal miners were killed last year alone, while the US Department of Labour Mine Safety and Health Administration recorded the deaths of 19 American coal miners in 2012.)

In the nuclear industry, there had been one – Chernobyl (in 1986). The World Health Organisation expects some 4 000 people to die as a result of radiation exposure from the Chernobyl disaster over the lifetimes of the some 600 000 people exposed to the radiation. This would represent a 3% increase in expected cancer deaths for this population – about 150 000 of whom are expected to die from naturally occurring cancers not caused by radiation from Chernobyl. Up to September 2005, some 50 emergency workers and nine children had died from radiation or radiation-induced thyroid cancer. Of some 4 000 children and adolescents who developed thyroid cancer as a result of Chernobyl, almost 99% survived.

After Chernobyl, the second-worst nuclear accident has been Fukushima (2011). Kenny excoriated the designers and operators of the Fukushima nuclear power plant. “The nuclear industry is absolutely at fault for Fukushima. Japanese geologists had demonstrated that there had been worse tsunamis during the past 1 000 years. “The nuclear power plant should have been designed against them.” Nevertheless, Fukushima is a “spectacular demon- stration” of the safety of nuclear energy. “The number of people killed by radia- tion [from Fukushima] so far is zero,” he averred.

“The number of people likely to be killed in future is zero.”

As for nuclear waste, he pointed out that many technologies in widespread use today produce dangerous wastes that last for very long periods. Thus, the lead used in car batteries is toxic and effectively lasts forever. Many solar panels use cadmium, a toxic metal. Lead and mercury are also used to make them. Neodymium is used in the manufacture of wind turbines, and a by-product of neodymium mining is often radioactive thorium. “All energy technologies produce ‘deadly’ waste that remains dangerous for millions of years,” affirmed Kenny. “All these [wastes] can be successfully managed.”