James Harold Wilson, Baron Wilson of Rievaulx, KG, OBE, FRS, PC, or simply Harold Wilson, was Prime Minister of the UK from 1964 to 1970 and from 1974 to 1976. He is also famed for having said that “a week is a long time in politics”.

Granted, it was longer than a week – 17 days, to be exact – from the time the UK voted to exit Europe to the time of writing this column, but a lot happened during that period. Only hours before I sat down to write this article, it was announced that, on July 13, Theresa May would become only the second UK woman Prime Minister in what can only be considered a “fast-track political transition. This was after another woman candidate, Andrea Leadsom, had withdrawn from the race. (The first UK woman Prime Minister was Margaret Hilda Thatcher – also known as Baroness Thatcher, LG, OM, PC, FRS, FRIC – who served from 1979 to 1990.)

What a 17-day period it was? It all started with the UK and Gibraltar voting to leave the European Union (EU) on June 24, which saw British Prime Minister David Cameron resign that very morning, throwing international financial markets into turmoil. In the days that followed, the British pound slumped to a 31-year low against the US dollar.

Then, on June 27, the English national soccer team (the Three Lions) was dumped out of the Euro 2016 tournament in a shock 2-1 defeat by Iceland – yes, thirty-fourth-ranked Iceland. (An interesting fact – the surname of every Iceland player who played in the game ends with ‘son’. Could Iceland be the land of the raising son? Apologies to Japan.) The result saw England manager Roy Hodgson resign at the news conference convened after the game. England’s captain is yet to follow suit. But do not hold your breath; the manager is always at fault. As my mother would remind us, “it never rains; it pours”.

And then, on Sunday July 10, as I was typing away, there was a ray of sunshine, generally a rarity at Wimbledon – Britain’s Andy Murray became Wimbledon champion for the second time, beating Canadian Milos Raonic in the final.

So, what is South Africa making of all this? Well, South Africa might well delight in Britain’s, or should it be Great Britain’s, self- inflicted misfortune, particularly as a result of the recent strengthening of the rand against the British pound. But what goes up must come down, particularly since the strengthening of the rand is not attributed to this country’s performance, but rather to what is happening in the UK. I hope that South Africa is not taking a grandstand seat, but, at the very least, that it is actively pursuing the retention of trade relations (trade preferences and trade agreements) with the UK, even though the expectation is that it will take at least two years for the UK to leave the EU – Brexit, if you will. But it is quite possible that such an exit could be negotiated sooner. No one likes uncertainty, and with a new Prime Minister, there is a real expectation that she will act now, and decisively so. This is what financial markets want to see – certainty and decisive action.

In these interesting times, the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) has published on its website the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) documentation under the headline ‘Economic Partnership Agreement between the SADC EPA States, of the one part, and the European Union and its Member States, of the other part’.

The department offered the following: “The SADC EPA member States and the European Union signed the Economic Partnership Agreement on June 10, 2016, in Kasane, Botswana. South Africa participated in the SADC-EU EPA configuration negotiations since 2007. South Africa’s core interest has been to harmonise the trading regime between the Southern African Customs Union (Sacu) and the EU; to secure further market access in agriculture (beyond the SA-EU Trade Development and Cooperation Agreement (TDCA) provisions) and claw back on some policy space lost under the TDCA. South Africa’s objectives have been achieved. After entry into force, the agreement will replace the Trade chapter of the (TDCA).”

The documents are SADC-EU EPA Main; Annex I – EU regime for tariff phase-down to EU tariff; Annex I – EU tariff schedule HS 2008 to 39 11 90 99; Annex I – EU tariff schedule HS 3912 to 64 02 99 98; Annex I – EU tariff schedule HS 6403 to 84 58 99 00; Annex I – EU tariff schedule HS 8459 to Part III on treatment of BLMNS products by EU; Annex II – Sacu regime for tariff phase-down to Sacu tariff; Annex II – Sacu tariff schedule HS 3702 to 72 15 90; Annex II – Sacu tariff schedule HS 72 16 to 99 99 00 20; Annex III – Mozambique regimes for tariff phase-down to Mozambique; and Annex IV, V, VI and VII, and Protocol 1, 2, 3 and 4.

I would imagine you are familiar with Sacu, whose members are the BLNS counties (Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland) and South Africa.

The SADC has 15 member countries, namely Angola, Botswana, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Seychelles, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe. The SADC includes the five member Sacu. So, how many countries do you expect the SADC-EU EPA countries to consist of? Well, it consists of the BLNS countries, and Mozambique, hence, the acronym BLMNS, as well as South Africa. Thus, six countries.
So, in light of Brexit, where does this leave South Africa and Sacu in terms of the TDCA, and South Africa and the BLMNS in terms of the SADC-EU EPA? Granted, South Africa has yet to sign the SADC-EU EPA – the TDCA and the SADC-EU EPA were signed by the EU, as a trade bloc, and not by the UK directly.
If anything, South Africa simply cannot afford to lose its market access to the UK, but how it is going to manage its trade relations (inclusive of its Free Trade Agreement, or FTA) with the EU and then conceivably with the UK in unison is quite another matter.
It would no doubt require the renegotiation of the trade preferences in the trade agreement, and other trade relations. Although some South African industries might well perceive this to be an opportunity for the renegotiation of improved trade preferences, this might well be flawed thinking. Quite simply, it is not only South Africa or Sacu or even the SADC with which the UK needs to renegotiate its trade preferences. South Africa might well find itself at the back, or towards the back, of the queue – a long one at that.
Ever wondered how to wait for your turn in a long queue? Well, according to www.wikihow.com there are ten things to do, namely (1) Keep a small, thin book handy; (2) Play phone games; (3) Catch up on your phone calls; (4) Watch television (drifter); (5) Play word games or imagination games; (6) Make friends; (7) Bring a snack; (8) Look after your health; (9) Be patient; or (10) Write.