Global energy consumption forecast to rise 48% by 2040 – EIA

11th May 2016

By: Henry Lazenby

Creamer Media Deputy Editor: North America

  

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TORONTO (miningweekly.com) – The world’s hunger for energy is insatiable and is expected to rise by about 48% between 2012 and 2040 – an increase of about 1.4% a year, as global economies grow and populations expand.

The US-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies on Wednesday published its updated projections of world energy supply and demand through to 2040, with the release of the International Energy Outlook 2016. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) stated that energy consumption was expected to rise from 548-quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2012, to 815-quadrillion Btu by 2040.

EIA administrator Adam Sieminski stated during a webcast event on Wednesday in which Mining Weekly Online participated, that more than half (65%) of this demand growth was expected to come from nonmember countries of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in Asia, including China and India. OECD countries were only expected to account for 35% of total demand.

The industrial sector continued to account for the largest share of delivered energy consumption, as the world’s industrial sector still consumed more than half of the global delivered energy by 2040.

Renewable energy was the world's fastest growing energy source, increasing by 2.6% a year, while nuclear energy growth was pegged at 2.3% a year, from 4% of the global total in 2012 to 6% in 2040.

In the EIA's base case scenario, fossil fuels would continue to supply more than three-quarters of world energy use in 2040.

Sieminski noted, however, that there were many risk factors to take into account for the 25-year projections, such as real economic growth in critical economies such as China, Brazil and Russia; the implementation and strength of climate policies; technology improvement; output by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and future nuclear generation capacity.

ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH
Economic activity and population growth were expected to drive increases in energy use. Meanwhile, energy intensity as measured against gross domestic product (GDP) growth was expected to decline.

The EIA expected that renewable sources of energy would continue to grow rapidly, while the use of coal would flatten, and natural gas demand would outstrip coal by 2030. Oil would maintain its leading share as any other form of energy had a hard time competing against oil owing to its energy density, Sieminski stated.

The report found that economic growth typically drove electricity demand but, in 2040, electricity use was expected to grow at a faster rate than other sources of delivered energy, yet slower than GDP, the EIA advised.

On the positive side, the expected carbon intensity of energy use was forecast to decline through 2040 in both OECD and non-OECD countries, mainly thanks to improving and more efficient technologies.

The EIA expected that liquid fuel supplies from both Opec and non-Opec producers would rise to about 53-million barrels a day by 2040, from about 43-million barrels a day in 2012, boosted by output rising mainly from the Middle East.

Meanwhile, by 2040, the EIA predicted that non-OECD nations would account for 76% of the growth in natural gas consumption, while non-OECD Asia, Middle East and OECD Americas were expected to account for the largest increases in natural gas output. Shale gas, tight gas and coalbed methane would become increasingly important to gas supplies, not only in the US, but also in China and Canada, the EIA advised.

Non-OECD Asia was expected to account for about 60% of the global increase in energy-related carbon dioxide emissions.

According to Sieminski, virtually all of the growth in nuclear power would occur in non-OECD regions, with China accounting for about 61% of the world nuclear capacity growth.

Edited by Samantha Herbst
Creamer Media Deputy Editor

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