According to newspaper reports, the African National Congress (ANC) in Gauteng would like former President Thabo Mbeki to join the 2014 election campaign effort of the ruling party in the province of gold.

Not so long ago, Panyaza Lesufi, special adviser to Basic Education Minister Angie Motshekga, penned an article in which, besides other things, he proposed that former ANC Youth League president and now Economic Freedom Fighters leader Julius Malema should be allowed back into the ANC. As expected, Lesufi was castigated by the Gauteng leadership of the ANC. Similarly, Gwede Mantashe, the secretary-general of the ruling party, slapped down the Gauteng ANC for its impertinence.

This was not surprising at all. What was surprising was the fact that Gauteng Premier Nomvula Mokonyane came out publicly, guns blazing, to blast her Gauteng colleagues for having the temerity to make a proposal which amounts to a vote of no confidence against President Jacob Zuma. Perhaps, one should not have been surprised, given the fact that the appearance of unity within the Gauteng structures of the ANC is just that – a false impression.

In fact, both in Polokwane, in 2007, and Mangaung, last year, the Gauteng ANC was more divided than some of the provincial leaders would have us believe. It is for this reason that Gauteng, against the desires of many, is afflicted with what the ANC under Zuma dreads – two centres of power. The chairperson of the ANC in Gauteng, Paul Mashatile, is not the provincial premier. Fortunately for Mokonyane, the power to appoint provincial Premiers resides in the national leadership of the ANC. Were this not the case, she would be nowhere in provincial politics. More importantly, Mokonyane was on the winning side in the internecine battles of Polokwane and Mangaung. But the fact that she has outgrown provincial politics, or Gauteng politics has outgrown her, may be the most plausible explana- tion for her openly defiant support for the President. If I am correct, Mokonyane’s future in South African politics will be that of a key player in national politics, both in the party and the country. But if I were her, I would not count my chickens before they hatch.

So, what is all this about?

Undoubtedly, the call for Mbeki to be part of the ANC campaign, as I said, betrays a lack of confidence on the part of some in Gauteng and elsewhere in the leadership of Zuma. This means that some in the ANC have now gone the Polokwane full circle. At the Polokwane conference of the ANC, Mbeki was unseated because he was not Zuma, and now people are calling for his help in the 2014 elections because he is not Zuma. Effectively, Mbeki was accused of witchcraft and now he is being asked to cook at the ANC election wedding.

All this is happening against the back- drop of persistent rumours that there are some within the ruling party who do not want Zuma’s face to be put on the 2014 ballot paper. The reason why this has not extended beyond a whispering campaign is that most of those involved are, like Mashatile and those who support him, the losers of Mangaung. Also, it is highly unlikely that the overwhelming support that the President won in Mangaung has since withered away. Because of this, it is highly unlikely that a call for the ANC not to go with Zuma to the 2014 elections would ever receive sufficient support. If it did, it would split the ANC into another factional battle and would cost the ruling party dearly in the election.

But the proponents of the idea that the ANC should look elsewhere for a Presidential candidate may argue that to field Zuma as a Presidential candidate would be just as costly. In my not-so-humble opinion, I need to be persuaded that the balance of electoral support in 2014 will change substantially to the detriment of the ruling party if Zuma leads its elec- tion campaign. If I am wrong, and the electoral calamity that some commentators are predicting does indeed befall the ANC, the opponents of the President will probably seize the moment and blame him for the disaster.

Also, depending on how huge the disaster is, and, therefore, how emboldened the opponents of Zuma are, some might go for the Kamikaze option of calling for the ANC to nominate a person other than him to be elected head of State after the 2014 election.

I call this the Kamikaze option because I cannot think of anyone succeeding in replacing Zuma as the Presidential nomi- nee of the ANC. If the balance of forces and support does not change substantially in the months to come, the Gauteng ANC is asking Mbeki to be Zuma’s cheerleader and flower girl.