Brazilian aerospace group Embraer, one of the world’s top two regional jet manufacturers, has forecast a global demand for 10 550 new airliners with capacities of 150 seats or less, over the next 20 years. This prediction was released on Sunday at Farnborough in the UK, the day before the start of the world-renowned Farnborough Airshow.

At the end of this period, the global fleet of such airliners will amount to 16 000, in comparison to the worldwide fleet of 9 000 today. Of the new aircraft to be acquired, 35% will be to replace existing airliners and 65% to meet growing markets.

“Past performance is no guarantee of future results,” observed Embraer Commercial Aviation president and CEO John Slattery. “Even though every facet of the industry has excelled over the past years, we are now warming up for the next period of higher costs, with pressures on yields likely to continue unabated. Profits are eroding and gains wiped out with rising costs.”

Embraer’s analysis splits the world into seven regions. Demand for airliners in these areas is expected to vary considerably.

The four regions that will see the most demand for new aircraft will be the Asia-Pacific, which will take 28% of the total; North America, which will account for 27%; Europe (21%) and Latin America (11%). The three regions with the lowest demand will be the member States of the Commonwealth of Independent States (centred on Russia), with 6%; Africa, with 4%; and the Middle East (3%).

“The economic performance of the airline industry will mostly depend on how far costs will rise and to what extent the industry can sustain a healthy revenue environment,” said the company in its statement. “Aircraft in the up to 150-seat segment are the best placed to combine cost efficiency with stronger yields. … Aircraft in the up to 150-seat segment [are] one of the main pillars of business sustainability.”