Brazilian aerospace group Embraer, one of the world’s four biggest commercial aircraft manufacturers, has forecast that African operators will acquire 240 new jet airliners in the 70- to 130-seat category over the next 20 years. “Africans are turning progressively to air travel,” noted Embraer commercial aviation VP: Latin America, Africa and Portugal Simon Newitt. “As in Asia, economic expansion, a growing urban middle class, continued market liberalisation and regional integration will be the main drivers of air transport demand.”

The forecast was released at the recent Marrakech Air Show, in Morocco. Allowing for the retirement of older aircraft already in service, the company expects the number of airliners in Africa in the 70- to 130-seat segment to grow from 120 today to 260 by 2034. Embraer is the number one manufacturer of airliners in this category.

The company’s study of the African air travel market suggests that many of the continent’s airlines are undermining their own profitability by operating airliners that are too large for current market demand. No fewer than 83% of all intra-African flights carry fewer than 120 passengers. Yet some 70% of the single-aisle airliners in operation across the continent have more than 130 seats. African airlines have an average load factor of only 68%.

In terms of connectivity, air traffic remains concentrated on Africa’s largest cities. During 2015, there were 300 airports operating across the continent, but only eight linked 25 or more cities and 240 connected five or fewer. In terms of passenger traffic, about 90% of African city pairs see volumes of up to 300 people a day. On the other hand, this means there remain considerable opportunities to expand air transport connectivity across the continent.

“With the right-sized aircraft, such as the E-Jets family, African carriers would be able to offer a better combination of capacity and frequency in core as well as low- to mid-density markets,” affirmed Newitt. Currently, almost 40 Embraer E-Jets are in service with six operators in six countries across Africa. This gives the company an African market share of more than 40% among jet airliners in the up-to-130-seat category.

Embraer is currently developing the second generation of its twin-engined E-Jet family. The first generation is composed of four models – the 70- to 78-seat E170, with a range of 2 150 nautical miles (nm); the 70- to 88-seat E175, with a range of 2 200 nm; the 98- to 114-seat E190, with a range of 2 450 nm; and the 108- to 124-seat E195, with a range of 2 300 nm. So far, 1 200 E-jets have been delivered to about 70 customers in 50 countries. Another 246 are on firm order (plus 394 options).

The second generation, the E-Jets E2, will comprise three models: the E175-E2, the E190-E2 and the E195-E2. The first prototype for the new family, an E190-E2, was rolled out at the company plant at São José dos Campos, in São Paulo state, in late February. It is scheduled to make its first flight during the second half of this year, with the type entering into service during the first half of 2018. The second model to be built and flown will be the E195-E2, the first prototype of which should makes its maiden flight next year. The $1.7-billion E2 programme involved the development and fitting of new, aerodynamically advanced wings, completely fly-by-wire flight controls, new-generation engines (geared turbofans from Pratt&Whitney) and other improvements to the E175, E190 and E195 fuselages. The E175-E2 will have a range of 2 060 nm, the E190-E2 will fly 2 800 nm and the E195-E2 will reach 2 000 nm. Firm orders for the E2 family currently total 267, with options for 265.