Feb 27, 2012
Youth League now unlikely to influence ANC leadership, policy battlesBack
© Reuse this
If they are, ANC Youth League president Julius Malema will probably not be cast in the leading role. In fact, there is a possibility that he will be reduced to an extra and will, therefore, watch the drama from the sidelines.
On the other hand, is there any point in writing about Malema and the ANC, given the fact that the world is supposedly coming to an end this December. Maybe this should be my last sentence on ANC internal battles. In case this turns out to be another false prophesy about the end of the world, I need to explain, albeit briefly, why Malema and the Youth League want President Jacob Zuma to sing the 1949 Blues.
To cut a long story short, two things happened at the 1949 conference. Firstly, AB Xuma, who had rejected proposals from the Youth League for a radical shift in political strategy and tactics, was booted out of the presidency of the ANC. Secondly, the Youth League won the battle for the radicalisation of the ANC and the strategic change in direction altered the course of South African history. The outcome of the 1949 conference set in train events that led to the defiance and pass campaigns of the 1950s, the Sharpville massacre and the banning of the ANC in 1960 and the formation of Umkhonto WeSizwe in 1961.
While the context is that of a democratic South Africa, Malema and the Youth League have set themselves the twin objectives of radicalising the content of economic policy and the removal of Zuma as ANC president. If the balance of forces and support in the ANC stays the same, they will achieve neither. The possibility, therefore, is that it is Malema and his supporters who will be singing the blues.
With the appeals committee having upheld Malema’s conviction by the disciplinary com- mittee of the ANC on charges of bringing the party into disrepute and sowing division, will the Youth League be able to play a critical role in policy and leadership battles in the period leading up to the Mangaung conference? In fact, will there be any policy and leadership battles at all?
We cannot rule out the possibility that the battle for Mangaung will end up being what in Zulu is called umlilo wamaphepha (paper fire), which burns with impressive ferocity but does so for a very short time. With Malema out of the picture, a leadership vacuum caused by the neutralisation of Malema, the fracturing of the remaining leadership and strategic and tactical differences may undermine the capa- city of the Youth League to influence the outcome of leadership and policy battles.
On the policy front, it seems the nationalisation debate is dying a slow death. That notwithstanding, it is clear that the ANC will be pushing for a redetermination of the terms of engagement between the mining sector and the State. The debate is gravitating towards defining the extent of State involvement in the mining sector and the adoption of a mix of rent-seeking measures.
Therefore, the political battle will most probably be more interesting than the policy battle. There is a strong possibility of a decoupling of support for Malema from attempts to unseat the President. In other words, those who have developed an antipathy towards Zuma, and had hoped that Malema would be their vehicle to this end, may elect to align themselves with anti-Malema factions that seek to limit Zuma to a single Presidential term. The problem, however, is that they still do not have a candidate to challenge the President.
The leadership battle will either be a damp squib or a challenger will emerge 11 hours 59 minutes before the presidential election in Mangaung. We should not rule out the possibility of a challenger flying under the radar until he is nominated from the floor at the conference. If this scenario applies to the party’s deputy president, Kgalema Motlanthe, then he has some strategic and tactical options to consider. If the Malema disciplinary matter is put on the agenda of the ANC’s national executive committee, Motlanthe may choose to keep quiet and run the risk of alienating those who want him to run against Zuma. On the other hand, he can alienate them by taking an unambiguous stand against Malema and win the support of the anti-Malema and anti-Zuma camps.
Alternatively, Motlanthe may choose to be coy with his suitors in the hope that appearances of neutrality will deliver maximum benefits in Mangaung.
But we must always make room for a Black Swan scenario on both the policy and political fronts. Ten months is a very long time in South African and ANC politics.
Edited by: Martin Zhuwakinyu© Reuse this Comment Guidelines (150 word limit)
Other Aubrey Matshiqi News
Article contains comments
Updated 53 minutes ago A second full electric vehicle has entered the South African market, following the local debut of the Nissan Leaf in 2013. The BMW i3 BEV sells for R525 000, while the derivative with a range extender, the i3 REx, sells for R595 000.
Updated 1 hour 33 minutes ago Amid an ongoing delay in the promulgation of the Final Position Paper on Biofuels by the Department of Energy (DoE), prospective biodiesel producers have cautioned that continued legislative uncertainty could cripple the fledgling industry. The ‘Regulations regarding...
Updated 1 hour 53 minutes ago It is imperative for the local industry to strike a healthy balance between international competition and dumping, the Steel and Engineering Industries Federation of Southern Africa (Seifsa) has said. A flood of cheap imports; unfair competition from highly...
Recent Research Reports
Construction 2015: A review of South Africa’s construction sector (PDF Report)
Creamer Media’s Construction 2015 Report examines South Africa’s construction industry over the past 12 months. The report provides insight into the business environment; the key participants in the sector; local construction demand; geographic diversification;...
Liquid Fuels 2014 - A review of South Africa's Liquid Fuels sector (PDF Report)
Creamer Media’s Liquid Fuels 2014 Report examines these issues, focusing on the business environment, oil and gas exploration, the country’s feedstock supplies, the development of South Africa’s biofuels industry, fuel pricing, competition in the sector, the...
Water 2014: A review of South Africa's water sector (PDF Report)
Creamer Media’s Water 2014 report considers the aforementioned issues, not only in the South African context, but also in the African and global context, and examines the issues of water and sanitation, water quality and the demand for water, among others.
Defence 2014: A review of South Africa's defence industry (PDF Report)
Creamer Media’s Defence 2014 report examines South Africa’s defence industry, with particular focus on the key participants in the sector, the innovations that have come out of the sector, local and export demand, South Africa’s controversial multibillion-rand...
Road and Rail 2014: A review of South Africa's road and rail infrastructure (PDF report)
Creamer Media’s Road and Rail 2014 report examines South Africa’s road and rail transport system, with particular focus on the size and state of the country’s road and rail network, the funding and maintenance of these respective networks, and the push to move road...
Real Economy Year Book 2014 (PDF Report)
This edition drills down into the performance and outlook for a variety of sectors, including automotive, construction, electricity, transport, steel, water, coal, gold, iron-ore and platinum.
This Week's Magazine
The World Bank, the European Union, the African Development Bank (AfDB) and the government of Sweden have agreed to provide Zimbabwe and Zambia with $294-million for the repair of structural deformations on the Kariba dam wall and avert the possible collapse of the...
Executive chairperson of the Global Electricity Initiative (GEI) Philippe Joubert says energy utilities globally, together with the business community more generally, have come to terms with the science of climate change, particularly as extreme weather events begin...
JSE-listed Emira Property Fund reported distribution growth per participatory interest (PI) of 9% for the six months ended December 31, 2014.
Sub-Saharan Africa is still faced with the challenge of providing citizens access to electricity and an additional $450-billion will need to be invested to ensure that people in urban areas have access to electricity by 2040.
Consulting Engineers South Africa (Cesa) last month said it was dismayed that the Department of Water and Sanitation (DWS) was seconding 35 Cuban engineers on a two-year contract to share their expertise with South African engineers in the water sector.
Next ArticleChina not the only threat to democracy