The World Trade Organisation (WTO) has forecast that world merchandise trade will pick up only slightly over the next two years, increasing from 2.8% in 2014 to 3.3% in 2015 (in volume terms) and eventually to 4% in 2016. The latter is still below the average of 5.1% since 1990 and well below the prefinancial-crisis average of 6.%.

Growth in merchandise trade volumes has been very slow in recent years, averaging 2.4% over the last three years.

According to the WTO, exports from developing countries grew faster than those from developed countries in 2014, at 3.3%, compared with 2.2%, while developing countries’ imports grew more slowly, at 2.0%, compared with 3.2%. The 47% drop in oil prices (between July 15 and December 31, 2014) is expected to boost incomes and imports in energy-intensive economies (including developed countries and the People’s Republic of China), while reducing incomes in fuel-exporting countries.

The WTO cited numerous downside risks to the forecast, including geopolitical tensions, divergent monetary policies, exchange rate fluctuations and slower growth in emerging economies.

Several factors contributed to the sluggishness of merchandise trade and output in 2014 and at the start of 2015, including slowing gross domestic product growth in emerging economies, an uneven recovery in developed countries and rising geopolitical tensions, besides others. According to the WTO, strong exchange rate fluctuations, including a 14% appreciation of the US dollar against other currencies between July 2014 and March 2015, have further complicated the trade situation and outlook.

Collapsing world oil prices in 2014 and weaknesses in other commodity classes hit export receipts and reduced import demand in exporting countries, but also boosted real incomes and imports in importing countries. According to the WTO, whether this turns out to be a positive or negative development on balance for world merchandise trade in 2015 remains to be seen.

Sacu Import Requirements
Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Minister Senzeni Zokwana, in terms of the Animal Diseases Act, has published for comment on proposed revised import requirements for cattle, sheep and goats from Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland (the so-called BLNS countries). The BLNS countries, along with South Africa, constitute the Southern African Customs Union. Those wishing to comment should do so by May 17.

The proposed requirements are available on the Internet or at the Agricultural Production branch and the Health and Food Safety Animal Health Import/Export Policy Unit of the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (DAFF).

The proposed requirements relate to the WTO Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS agreement), which has a twofold objective: to recognise the sovereign right of members to provide the level of health protection they deem appropriate, and to ensure that SPS measures do not represent unnecessary, arbitrary, scientifically unjustifiable or disguised restrictions on international trade. The agreement encourages member countries to use international standards, guidelines and recommendations where they exist.

According to the notice, it was decided in August 2013 that the current requirements for the import of cattle, sheep and goats from BLNS countries needed to be reviewed. These countries are considered to have a similar disease status; however, the import requirements for certain of the countries remained very strict, compared with those of others. To remain consistent with the SPS agreement, the import requirements for cattle, sheep and goats from BLNS countries were revised and harmonised.

The Directorate of Animal Health notified relevant stakeholders and importers, through a letter distributed on February 3, 2014, of the revised requirements. The letter also served as a notice of the implementation date of May 1, 2014.

Owing to a successful objection lodged in terms of the Animal Diseases Act on the basis of nonadherence to the spirit of the Promotion of Administrative Justice Act, the DAFF decided on August 26, 2014, to suspend the implementation of the revised import conditions for livestock from the BLNS countries with immediate effect until an adequate consultation process had been followed.
An invitation for comment has now been extended.

Pomegranate Measures
On April 17, Zokwana informed of the receipt of a request from the Pomegranate Association of South Africa (Pomasa) on March 16 for the implementation of statutory measures in the pomegranates industry for four years, with effect from January 2016.

Pomasa requested the introduction and promulgation of the following statutory measures in the pomegranates industry: Section 15 of the Marketing of Agricultural Products Act (MAP): Levies, Section 18 of the MAP Act: Records and returns, and Section 19 of the MAP Act: Registration. Pomasa indicated that the proposed statu- tory levy would finance the following functions: research and technology development and technology transfer; information and statistics; quality standards; communication, consumer education and market development; and transformation and training.

The proposed statutory measures relating to records and returns to be submitted to Pomasa are aimed at ensuring continuous and timeous availability of accurate market information. The proposed statutory measures relating to the registration of the relevant role-players with Pomasa are deemed necessary to assist the administrator in ensuring that continuous, timeous and accurate market information relating to the pomegranates industry is available to all role-players.

Currently, Pomasa members contribute a one-off joining fee of R500 and a yearly membership fee of R500. When the statutory measures are implemented, these fees will no longer be applicable. Pomasa indicated that it was a growing industry and needed sustainable funding over the medium term to finance important activities like research and technology development.
Comment is due by May 16.

Electricity Generation
The Department of Energy announced on April 17 that the licence fee (levy) payable by licensed generators of electricity to the National Energy Regulator of South Africa for the period April 1 to 31 had been set at 0.07625c/kWh.

Garlic Sunset Review
The International Trade Administration Com- mission of South Africa (Itac) has informed of the initiation of a sunset review of the antidumping duties on fresh or chilled garlic originating in or imported from the People’s Republic of China.

The notice follows an earlier one in which Itac notified interested parties that, unless a substantiated request was made indicating that the expiry of the antidumping duties would likely lead to the continuation or recurrence of dumping and material injury, the antidumping duties would expire on March 25. Itac subsequently received a sunset review application from the South African Garlic Growers Association.
Comment is due by April 27.