South Africa’s electricity war room, set up in December to deal with the country’s power crisis, views the recovery in the performance of Eskom’s coal power stations as its “number-one priority”, with the deterioration in the fleet’s energy availability factor (EAF) determined to be largely to blame for the utility’s inability to match demand with supply.

In parallel, though, it is also seeking improved coordination and demanding greater urgency on the implementation of both demand-response measures and cogeneration procurement, which are perceived to be two important short-term stabilisation levers.

In fact, the war room’s Malcolm Simpson argues that, by delivering on these three urgent elements of Cabinet’s larger five-point plan, the country should be in a position to close, over the coming year, the prevailing 3 000 MW gap that is making the network vulnerable to ongoing rotational load-shedding.

The balance of the plan includes the equally urgent objective of stabilising Eskom’s finances and the more medium-term goals of integrating gas into the energy mix and raising the contribution of independent power producers (IPPs).

But Simpson tells Engineering News Online that recovering availability at the coal-fired fleet has been set as a crucial key performance indicator for Eskom’s leadership, with the EAF having slipped precipitously from a 90% level in 2001 – it currently stands at less than 75%.

An internal Eskom assessment shows that only 49 of its 121 generating units are in a healthy state, with 14 in a fair condition, 26 units in a poor condition and 32 in a critical state.

The net result is that, despite having a theoretical dispatchable capacity of 43 500 MW, Eskom struggles to meet peak demand of less than 30 000 MW in summer, which rises to over 35 000 MW on cold winter days.

Given the scale of the fleet, even a modest improvement in the EAF should make a considerable difference, particularly in light of the country’s flat demand profile and little sign of major new demand, owing to the country’s weak economic condition.

The war room has set an aspiration of a recovery in the EAF to above 80% over 18 months, which, if achieved, will make a material contribution to closing the 3 000 MW gap.

Likewise, progress is being made in drawing together all the demand-side incentives available to government, while supporting the IPP Office with its plans to accelerate the introduction of private renewable-energy, cogeneration, coal and, eventually, gas capacity.

Simpson stresses, though, that implementation rests with Eskom and its original equipment-manufacturer suppliers in the area of addressing the maintenance backlog and with the IPP Office, government departments and Eskom in delivering an upscaling of demand-side management and cogeneration.

WORLD CUP TEMPLATE

The war room’s role, by contrast, is primarily one of coordination in the mould of the small coordinating structure set up by government in the run up to the 2010 FIFA World Cup, where Simpson headed the National Treasury's 2010 unit.

“It [the World Cup structure] was about ensuring that people did what they were meant to do, rather than doing it for them,” Simpson reflects.

Similarly, the war room, which has taken on something of an enigmatic air since its creation, aims to ensure coordination and implementation across Eskom and the participating departments of Public Enterprises, Energy, National Treasury, Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs, Economic Development, Mineral Resources and Trade and Industry.

Government Communication and Information System acting director-general Donald Liphoko argues that its name may have given the impression that it would “take charge”, but he stresses it is neither an implementing agent nor a “command centre”.

Instead, it’s a temporary, solutions-oriented structure designed to ensure that government decision-makers are better equipped to deal with the challenges arising at both Eskom and within what Simpson describes as a “shifting” electricity environment.

It is, therefore, also acting as a sounding board on the vexed issue of Eskom’s financial sustainability, where “all options” are currently being considered, from applications for higher tariffs, through to a possible listing, or a sale of Eskom assets to strategic equity partners. 

Structurally, it falls under Cabinet’s Inter-Ministerial Committee on Energy, which is chaired by Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa, who is himself advised by a panel comprising Professor Anton Eberhard, Dolly Mokgatle, Sy Gourah, Smunda Mokoena, Derick Elbrecht and Bobby Godsell.

It now meets twice a month (having met more regularly in the earlier phases) and is co-chaired by Energy Minister Tina Joemat-Pettersson and Public Enterprises Minister Lynne Brown, who have taken over the responsibility from their respective Deputy Ministers.

Liphoko also emphasises that the war room, the secretariat for which is based at the Union Building, is a government structure and does not, therefore, include members from outside government.

It does, however, have regular engagements with those stakeholder groupings that have requested ongoing feedback and interactions, such as Business Unity South Africa and the Association of Municipal Electricity Utilities.

But there is no intention to enlarge the war room to include representatives from civil society, as is been called for from a number of trade union leaders. “Nevertheless, we are open to meeting with all stakeholders,” Liphoko avers.