Trade conditions remain muted in November
The South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Sacci) trade survey for November, released on Wednesday, showed continued constraints in trade, with the seasonally adjusted Trade Activity Index (TAI) remaining in negative territory at 49 points.
The November TAI is a slight uptick on the 48 index points achieved in October 2016 and six index points stronger than in November last year.
“November usually has an extraordinary seasonal element owing to business-to-business trade being concluded before the holiday period of December,” Sacci said in its trade survey update.
The month under review’s inhibiting factors included political leadership, retrenchments, stiffer competition, downsizing of businesses, the weak economy and shrinking markets, in addition to slower economic growth by South Africa’s major trading partners, subdued local economic growth and the local debt squeeze on the public sector and households.
“Although new orders and sales volumes improved in November, supplier deliveries and inventories declined. Sales volumes increased from 52 in October to 59 in November, owing to the strong seasonal factor,” the chamber noted.
A slowdown was experienced in current selling and input prices, but six-month price expectations increased on sales and inputs.
In addition, the Trade Expectations Index (TEI) employment subindex declined from 49 to 45 index points on six-month employment prospects, but the TAI’s employment subindex decreased one index point to 48 between October and November.
The TEI overall remained in positive terrain registering a stable 55 index points in November 2016, while the seasonally adjusted TEI improved from 57 to 59.
Sales and new order expectations both improved in November.
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