The South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s (Sacci’s) Trade Activity Index (TAI) had slumped to its lowest level of 32 points since the survey’s inception in August 2000.

“Trade conditions slumped and dug exceptionally deep into negative territory in April 2009,” Sacci noted in a statement on Wednesday.

The April TAI was six points lower than March’s level of 38 points, and 13 points lower than the 45 points recorded in April 2008. The effect of three less trading days in April 2009, compared with the year before, was evident, noted the chamber.

However, trade conditions were expected to return to pre-April levels if the loss of trading days in future extrapolations was excluded, noted the chamber, adding that there were signs that real overall economic activity was losing some of its negative momentum.

All the demand subcomponents of trade activity were down by a substantial margin in March 2009.

The subindex on current sales volumes, the new orders subindex, and the backlog subindex all declined by more than six index points. Although supplier deliveries also slowed, inventory levels were maintained.

The declining price pressures continued to be a positive theme in the April 2009 survey, stated Sacci, noting that inflationary pressures had continued to ease.

The input price index had also declined by a margin of four index points, thereby indicating lower inflationary pressures in the trade environment, noted Sacci. The input price index was now considerably lower than its high of 84 in June last year.

Meanwhile, respondents to the survey were optimistic about the six months ahead, with the Trade Expectations Index (TEI) climbing to 48 in April, compared with 43 in March.

“The outlook for trade appears to be more upbeat and is supported by an uptick in business confidence in April 2009. Global trade and global economic conditions are showing some signs of relief,” stated Sacci.

The expectations for sales had reached positive territory again at 54 points, while the expectations for new orders had improved by five points to a neutral level of 50 points.

Further, the expected deliveries subindex had improved to 45 points in April.

Inflationary expectations remained restrained, with the expected input subindex declining by six points and the sales prices subindex declining by five points, signalling that inflation was expected to decline in the next six months.

Sacci expected the stronger rand to assist in curtailing the prices of imported goods and services, notably fuel.