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Africa|Sustainable
Africa|Sustainable
africa|sustainable

The Presidential Economic Advisory Council

11th October 2019

By: Riaan de Lange

     

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US satirist and mathematician Tom Lehrer is credited with saying: “The ‘new’ approach, as you know, the important thing is to understand what you are doing rather than to get to the right answer.”

So, will the 18-person ‘economic brain trust’ appointed by the President on September 27 get to the right answer? Is there even a right answer?

The reality is that South Africa’s economic problems – or challenges, if this is what you prefer to call them – are multifaceted and intertwined. My concern is that ‘solving’ or trying to solve these economic issues is like pressing a filled balloon. If you push in on one side, it pops out on the other side.

An obvious observation, made in this column before, is not that there is lack of economic policy conception on the part of government – there is plenty of that. Rather, there is lack of implementation. Interestingly, the Presidency’s media release announcing the appointment of the Economic Advisory Council members starts thus: “The council was announced by President Cyril Ramaphosa in the State of the Nation Address to ensure greater coherence and consistency in the implementation of economic policy and ensure that government and society in general are better equipped to respond to changing economic circumstances.” The problem is not ‘coherence and consistency’, but simply ‘implementation’. If you are in doubt, consider this: When last was there economic policy implementation, rather than just its announcement?

What will the council do? According to the press release, it “will advise the President, and government more broadly, facilitating the development and implementation of economic policies that spur inclusive growth”. At what pace will it do so? The answer from the press release: “The council will meet quarterly at first and will in due course decide on timelines that will best enable deliberations among council members and the council’s interface with the President.”

I doubt that it is going to be an expedited process, despite the fact that South Africa simply does not have the luxury of time to deliberate on economic interventions ad nauseam. Action is required. And there is no time like the present for that action to be taken.

It is not quite clear what the council will be proposing that has not been proposed before or, for that matter, that will be revolutionary. South Africa’s economic problems are well known, as are their remedies. The obvious challenge is that the remedies would be unpopular when they are introduced. This implies that the decision by government’s policymakers to introduce the unpopular remedies would, where possible, be delegated elsewhere. The last thing that South Africa needs now is the ‘development’ of economic policies.

The obvious question is: What is it that government wants to achieve? Surely it is not ‘inclusive growth’, which is merely a ‘mirage’, a word that originated from the Latin mirari, which means “to look at, to wonder at”. Inclusive growth is a concept that advances equitable opportunities for economic participants during economic growth, with benefits accruing to every section of society.

The question that needs to be asked is: What will spur inclusive economic growth? Just how will inclusive economic growth result? If such growth is to be achieved by foreign investment, owing to a lack of domestic investment, then surely it is not anticipated that the returns due to foreign investors will result in inclusive economic growth. Quite worryingly, the media release merely mentions ‘inclusive economic growth’ instead of ‘inclusive sustainable economic growth’. It is all about sustainability, no more, no less.

Consider South Africa’s economic beneficiaries of the last quarter of a century. These attained benefits were exclusive, rather than inclusive. Why would it now be any different? What is the economic incentive for it to be so? If these economic beneficiaries are themselves not willing to reinvest in the South African economy, why would anyone else be willing to do so?

Forget about ‘inclusive economic growth’ – it is but a mirage that remains beyond South Africa’s grasp.

Edited by Martin Zhuwakinyu
Creamer Media Senior Deputy Editor

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