In his opening speech at CeBIT – one of the world's most important technology events – Steve Ballmer, who, in his 28 years with Microsoft Corporation, lived through four computing revolutions, brought over to the participants an interesting review and a vision of the fifth computing revolution. Here are the highlights of his speech.

ONE REVOLUTION EVERY SEVEN YEAR

During the first revolution, the personal computer (PC) became an affordable, mainstream product. This revolution put computing power in the hands of individuals for the first time.

The second revolution saw the emergence of the graphical user interface, which made it much easier for people to take advantage of the power of computing.

Revolution Number Three saw the rise of the Internet. During this revolution, email became an everyday communication tool and information became dramatically easier to find and share. Computers wew also given the ability to talk to each other directly, which allowed users to start to automate many business processes – a revolution by itself.

Revolution Number Four was just starting in 2002, and Balmer calls it the Web 2.0 Revolution.During this revolution, the Web has evolved from static pages and information to become a platform for services, and for publishing and sharing information.

"If this seven-year pattern holds true, we should be at the end of Revolution Number Four and at the beginning of a fifth revolution," said Ballmer, adding "If you look at what is going on in the industry and in the marketplace, that is exactly what is happening."

The first trend shaping the fifth revolution, says Ballmer, are the hardware advances that are putting more and more processing power into smaller and smaller devices. The second trend is significantly expanded storage on PCs and devices of all sizes, and in massive data centres around the world.

A third – Ballmer calls it a 'key trend' – is the availability of wireless broadband networks everywhere, because it will allow users to tap into all that processing power and storage wherever they go.

Two other trends will play a critical role in the next seven years, one of them being natural user interfaces. Today, there are applications that can identify spoken and written words with great accuracy. In fact, interfaces that are driven by touch and gestures are beginning to emerge. Over time, interacting with computers will be more and more like interacting with people.

"We will still use a keyboard and a mouse when it is most efficient. But, at other times, you will 'tell' your device what you want it to do, or simply use a wave of your hand. Natural user interfaces (UIs) have been an important focus for Microsoft for a long time. A really long time. So I am excited to see these incredible capabilities finally coming to fruition," said Ballmer.

The last key trend is in displays. The screens and projection devices in use every day are getting cheaper and lighter. By the time the fifth revolution ends – in 2015 or so – high-definition screens will be everywhere. Instead of devices being tied to built-in screens, users will simply link their devices to a nearby display, or project information onto whatever surface is handy.

These are the raw ingredients of the fifth revolution: expanded processing power, huge amounts of storage, ubiquitous broadband, natural UIs and screens everywhere. Together, these five ingredients will change almost everything computer users do.

So what will the world look like in 2015? Ballmer is convinced that the best way to understand the changes is to think of them in three areas: personal empowerment, social interaction and global issues. These three areas will be dealt with in the next edition of Engineering News.