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Technological convergence seen as key to unlocking mobility revolution

UNCERTAINTIES A new set of uncertainties over the future of production and a shift in global production value chains impacts on workers and the types of skills required in future production industries

DIRECTING TECHNOLOGICAL SUCCESS The unprecedented technological shifts as a result of the Fourth Industrial Revolution are creating silos that need to be brought together to accelerate innovation and advancement

Photo by Reuters

6th April 2018

By: Natasha Odendaal

Creamer Media Senior Deputy Editor

     

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For South Africa to ride the wave being created by the so-called Fourth Industrial Revolution, greater attention will have to be given to aligning the fragmented changes taking place across multiple technologies, as well as in various industry sectors and subsectors. And nowhere is this promise of removing the silos more compelling than in the area of mobility.

National Association of Automotive Manufacturing of South Africa electric and autonomous vehicle working group chairperson Winstone Jordaan argues that the next industrial phase of convergence between cyber- and physical systems, the Internet of Things (IoT), the Internet of Systems, as well as extreme automation and extreme connectivity, is already blurring the lines between manufacturing and services. Unprecedented changes in manufacturing are occurring as a result of IoT-based technologies, robotics, three-dimensional printing, advanced materials, autonomous and electric cars and their charge points, simulations, sensors, Big Data, automation and communications and cloud computing.

“We are seeing multiple technologies emerging in different industries. We see a lot of new ideas evolving in the industries, and they have all evolved into their own little pillars. [However], these technologies have to evolve further and then be brought together,” he says.

As with the previous industrial revolutions, it is less about the actual technological change than it is about a merging of these changes across industries.

While many of the pillars are starting to “come together”, they are not yet really aligned and some still operate in technological silos scattered across industries. There is a need to gain insight into the way these often disparate pillars will be able to merge and create new opportunities.

“At some point, we need radical changes to align all these technologies. When these come together, we will truly see the Fourth Industrial Revolution,” Jordaan argues.

A Changing Landscape

The cultures, habits, needs and routines of people are increasingly shifting and clear indications of this change can be seen in the modern citizen’s drive towards a service- driven society; the adoption of services, as opposed to ownership; the continuing shifts in mobility and public transport use; and the adoption of car sharing, Uber-type transport and autonomous vehicles.

“People have chosen mobility as a service, as opposed to mobility as an asset,” says Gautrain Management Agency (GMA) CEO Jack van der Merwe, noting that it has become more important for people to free up their driving time to engage with social media, keep up to date with news and trends and stay informed en route to their destinations than to own a vehicle as a status symbol.

This is further driving the pursuit of autonomous transport, integrated, multi- modal transport services, personalised journey planning, fleet and ride sharing, integrated payment systems and crowd logistics, incorporating IoT and technology.

This, in turn, unlocks the potential to create entirely new product portfolios and industries as technologies increase in flexibility and enable coveted customisation.

This is also increasingly happening behind the scenes within industry and manufacturing, which are also starting to experience similar changes.

A World Economic Forum (WEF) paper, the Next Economic Growth Engine, paints a picture of a world where manufacturing is self-organised and more autonomous, value chains are seamlessly connected end-to-end, supply chains are connected to a broader supplier ecosystem that will function as a single platform and data will drive the creation of new services and innovations in business models.

Further, Jordaan points out, citing an example of the development of solar vehicles, that it is becoming more about the technology behind the scenes.

The batteries, controllers, sensors and all the technology injected into the development of a solar-powered vehicle, for instance, are transferable into a myriad of industries, such as solar-based energy production and electric and autonomous vehicles, besides many other applications.

Pleasure and Pain

“We are living in an age of great change. In the pleasure of the new, we will be [experiencing] pain during the unimaginable disruption. It has real life consequences for people,” says Gauteng Roads and Transport MEC Dr Ismail Vadi.

Decision-makers are being confronted with a new set of uncertainties over the future of production, as the unprecedented speed and scale transform production industries and the shift in global production value chains impacts on not only workers but also the types of skills required in future production industries.

“Both the speed and scope of change add a layer of complexity to the already challenging task of developing and implementing industrial strategies that promote productivity and inclusive growth,” the WEF says.

A “new geography” of production employment is emerging and significant skilling and reskilling efforts are urgently needed to help workers transition into the new jobs environment created by the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the forum adds.

“We have to grasp fully the speed and breadth of this new revolution, and more change is going to come. There is a positive [element], but there is a negative downside,” Vadi says.

Entire industries can be wiped out, he says, questioning the future role of fuel stations and the fuel industry as electric vehicles replace fuel-powered vehicles.

The tentative results of the first phase of a liquid-fuels-specific study, the South African electric vehicle macroeconomic study, conducted by Change Pathways, show several ‘big ticket’ impacts associated with a hypothetical 50% drop in the demand for liquid fuels for passenger cars amid the rise of passenger electric vehicles in South Africa.

Change Pathways director Anthony Dane points to potential scenarios of a R40-billion to R125-billion decrease in revenue associated with duties on liquid fuels, the loss of up to 45 000 low-skilled jobs and 2 400 highly skilled jobs in the refinery space, and the closure of smaller, less profitable sites, with impacts spanning refining and importing, distribution and storage and wholesale and retail.

However, Jordaan points out that South Africa’s electric vehicle market remains too small to create significant challenges currently.

Globally, there are 30 to 50 electric vehicles per charging station, while, in South Africa, there are only 5 to 10 cars per charger.

The study, yet to be definitively released, is currently in its second phase, with the last phase set to be completed in 2018/19.

Meanwhile, the shift will impact on the national electricity grid and eliminate the fuel levy, which contributes significantly to the fiscus for infrastructure and road maintenance, Vadi says.

The future of driverless vehicles will threaten the viability of the taxi industry, and further revenues and jobs from driver licensing stations.

It remains to be seen whether safety issues are surmountable. Will autonomous vehicles adjust to South African roads, understand and obey robot systems and road signs and rules, recognise infrastructure, buildings and pedestrians and halt for traffic officers?

Further, the impact of Uber has already been significantly disruptive and damaging to the existing public transport industry.

With the significant impact on the fiscus and on jobs, there is a need to keep the focus on bridging the already wide inequality and poverty gaps, says Vadi.

Technology Democratisation
GMA senior executive Tshepo Kgobe says it is about considering how the country can democratise technology and bring it to ordinary people in such a way that it empowers them.

Despite the challenges inherent in any transformation of any industry, the Fourth Industrial Revolution can lead to material gains in productivity, efficiency and quality, and combining the emerging technology with human skills can boost productivity and reduce error rates, while creating new types of jobs and increasing demand for higher-skilled labour.

“To be effective, solutions must be underpinned by a set of enablers, including education systems, a clear sense of shared social responsibility for private and public sectors alike, and a forward-looking policy framework,” the WEF says.

“We can resist the change, but keep in mind that, while the Fourth Industrial Revolution will destroy jobs, it will also create jobs – higher-skilled jobs,” Jordaan points out.

Jobs will be displaced by automation across global production value chains, but there will also be significant pockets of job creation within the wider manu- facturing ecosystem, the WEF agrees, adding that it will also shift the focus from the execution of repetitive and inefficient tasks to innovation through automation.

Disrupting revolutions have been seen in the past, says Jordaan, citing the trend of carrying things versus the use of the wheel; using horses versus cars; solar and wind versus fossil fuels; and the shift from typewriters to computers.

“History has proven that these disruptions do result in more and better jobs. If we resisted this change in 1901, we would still be shovelling horse manure, instead of driving coal trucks or working in refineries,” he comments.

“Today, we are seeing this again with the same resistance seen in the past: coal versus solar energy; fossil fuel versus electric cars and driver or autonomous.”

There is a need to understand the change and deal with the change.

“If we do not embrace it, it will still come. The rest of the world will drive it and we will be left behind,” Jordaan avers.

Edited by Martin Zhuwakinyu
Creamer Media Senior Deputy Editor

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