A new survey of 206 African business executives shows that the revenue and profit contribution from the continent is expected to rise materially in the coming five years, while Nigeria’s importance as a primary market is likely to increase and South Africa’s decrease over the period.

Titled ‘Africa is the horizon: the 2015 African Business Outlook Survey’, the report has been compiled by The Economist Corporate Network, the business advisory service of The Economist Group, which canvassed executives based primarily in the four biggest sub-Saharan economies – Nigeria, South Africa, Angola and Kenya.

It indicates that ongoing economic growth is providing the underlying rationale for business optimism, with the Economist expecting sub-Saharan Africa’s gross domestic product (GDP) to expand by 4.5% in 2015, making it the world’s fastest growing economic zone, ahead of Asia’s regional average of 4.3%.

The group’s global expectation is for growth of 3.6%, supported by a recovery in the US and continued, albeit more moderate, economic expansion in key developing countries such as China and India.

The survey estimates that, over the coming five years, sub-Saharan Africa’s share of global GDP will more than double, from 1.4% to 4% by 2020.

The Economist Corporate Network director Herman Warren says the favourable macroeconomic climate – together with rising consumer demand and expanding commodity exports – is providing a strong underpin for the expectation by the majority of respondents of a “significant shift in the revenue contribution from Africa.

“In 2014, 18% of respondents reported that Africa-based revenue composed less than 5% of their firms’ global revenue. In the next five years, around 4% of respondents expect less than 5% of their firms’ global revenue to come from Africa. This suggests that the multinational companies – certainly among the largest firms in our survey – will begin to gain real traction in the region.”

Respondents expect East, West and Southern Africa to attract the most investment, with Nigeria’s importance as a primary market to increase and South Africa’s to decline over the five-year period.

“For most respondents, their local markets are set to grow in importance, but for Southern African executives, particularly in South Africa, their local market is set to decline in importance by 2020 as they look more to West and East Africa,” Warren outlines.

But he also highlights that, while many South African executives believe most new opportunities “are up north”, those to the north of South Africa believe South Africa is an attractive destination.

However, the survey also reflects Africa’s commercial challenges, with respondents especially concerned about crime, corruption and bureaucracy, the uncertain regulatory environment as well as acute skills shortages.

The cost, availability and relations associated with labour were also cited for their potential negative impacts, along with currency volatility, infrastructure bottlenecks, civil and political unrest and Ebola. But notwithstanding the challenges of doing business, 57% of executives reported that margins in Africa were higher than their firms’ global average.

“Africa is one of the brightest areas of opportunity on the commercial horizon,” Warren avers, but says companies will need to adopt a long-term view and localise their strategies, products and services to compete in Africa.