Global climate change predictions suggest that, besides others, sea level rise and an increase in the intensity and frequency of storm events may have a significant impact on coastlines across the globe.

A sea level risk assessment study undertaken by the City of Cape Town and consultants has, indeed, warned that the city, with its 307-km coastline, is “particularly vulnerable” to the effects of climate change.

Speaking at a sea level rise seminar in Cape Town, hosted by Cambridge University, Stock- holm Environmental Institute economist Anton Cartwright elaborates that the key finding of the study undertaken by the City of Cape Town is that the sea level will rise by 15 cm by 2020 and by two-thirds of a metre by the end of the century.

This rise will increase the frequency and inten- sity of storm events around the coastline. The rise will also override existing defences against flooding during storm events.

Owing to this rise in sea level and the increase in storm events, the sea level rise risk assessment has concluded that, within the next 25 years, there is a 85% probability of 60,9 km2, or 2% of the metro area, being covered by sea for a short period.

The accompanying expected loss of real estate value is just under R20-billion.

Areas such as Woodbridge Island and Fish Hoek would be severely affected by a rise in sea level and an increase in storm activity.

While it is not possible to negate sea level rise, Gregg Oelofse of the Environmental Resource Management at the City of Cape Town believes that it is possible to mitigate against the risk.

Oelofse elaborates that there are a number of factors that the City of Cape Town can focus on to reduce the risk of coastal storms.

Firstly, it is essential that further coastal or strip development should be stopped in order to protect the natural coastline of the area.

The existing infrastructure along the highly developed coastline of the Cape Peninsula is significantly reducing the coastline’s natural ability to recover after storm events.

“A healthy natural coastline is the best defence against storms and, thus, it should be preserved and maintained,” elaborates Oelofse.

Similarly, he believes that it is necessary to increase investment into the maintenance of the natural coastline.

It is also necessary that a longer-term vision of protecting the city’s coastline should, in most instances, take priority over short-term economic decisions and benefits.

Oelofse elaborates that it is necessary to start putting together a framework that will allow the City of Cape Town to make long-term sustainable choices.

Most significantly, Oelofse states that it is essential that the City of Cape Town builds and retains a coastal managements skills pool, as, currently, the local government employs no coastal engineers.

It is also essential that the discussion on climate change become less polarised, with environmentalists and governments collaborating on issues and actions that will mitigate against the effects of climate change.

The research is currently being incorporated in the City of Cape Town’s planning legislation, and, most importantly, in the defining and upholding of a coastal buffer zone.