The use of graphs to illustrate the South African economy’s trajectory is a superfluous endeavour in the nth degree. The appeal of graphs, especially your general line graphs, is that they emphasise the tendency of the measure to ascend. Not to descend. But can South Africa re-ascend from its current self-inflicted economic misery? In other words, is South Africa able to ascend to a former improved position? Given South Africa’s current situation, such a question is, at best, rhetorical.

On September 26, the World Economic Forum (WEF) released ‘The Global Competitiveness Report 2017–2018’, which compares 137 economies. South Africa placed sixty-first. Is this good or bad? Well, it depends. (I have spoken like a true economist!) It depends on the previous year’s performance, which was 14 positions higher. If you are a glass-half-full person, depending on the contents of the glass, you might well find solace in the fact that, according to the report, South Africa remains one of sub-Saharan Africa’s most competitive economies. Not that that, in itself, says much.

But just how does the WEF reach the conclusions that it publishes? In its assessment, the WEF considers 12 pillars of competitiveness, which are institutions, infrastructure, macro- economic environment, health and primary education, higher education and training, goods market efficiency, labour market efficiency, financial market development, technological readiness, market size, business sophistication, and innovation.

According to the WEF, South Africa’s economy is nearly at a standstill (no surprise there), with gross domestic product growth forecast at just 1% in 2017 and 1.2% in 2018 – “hit by persistently low international demand for its commodities, while its unemployment rate is currently estimated at above 25% and rising”. Noticed something interesting? Well, yes, next year – 2018 – is going to be a better year than this year. You read it here first. Heard this before? In the column published on October 4, 2016, just more than a year ago, I wrote of financial economists and the cheerleader effect. If you believe that there will be improved economic growth next year, I should possibly not spoil your belief in the existence of Father Christmas, the Easter Bunny, or even the Tooth Fairy. There are ‘religions’ founded on the promise of future prosperity.

According to the WEF report, the 16 “most problematic factors for doing business in South Africa”, with their percentage in brackets, are: corruption (14.3%), crime and theft (12.1%), government instability/coups (10.2%), tax rates (7.4%), inefficient government bureaucracy (7%), poor work ethic in the national labour force (6.6%), restrictive labour regulations (6.3%), inadequately educated workforce (6.1%), inflation (5.9%), access to financing (5.7%), policy instability (5.3%), inadequate supply of infrastructure (3%), insufficient capacity to innovate (2.8%) tax regulations (2.8%), poor public health (2.3%), and foreign currency regulation (2.2%).

Collectively, corruption, crime and theft, and government instability/coups account for more than a third – 36.6% – of the most problematic factors for doing business in South Africa. Surprised? If you add tax rates and inefficient government bureaucracy, the percentage increases to just over half – 51%.

In light of this, do you have any idea as to how many times South Africa placed in the top ten of the WEF’s latest ranking? Not once. Yes, not once. In the top 20? Once. Any guess as to what that was for? Internet bandwidth, which placed eleventh.

Do you want to venture a guess as to how many times South Africa placed in the bottom ten of the WEF ranking? Tip: more than once. Ten times, in fact. Any guess as to what that was for? Tuberculosis incidence (137th), cooperation in labour-employer relations (137th), HIV prevalence (134th), business costs of crime and violence (133rd), business impact of tuberculosis (132nd), flexibility of wage determination (132nd), life expectancy (129th), business impact of HIV/Aids (128th), quality of mathematics and science education (128th) and favouritism in decisions of government officials (127th).

Interestingly, this year, ‘strength of auditing and reporting standards’ placed thirtieth. Not too bad, you might think, but then it is down from first place last year. If I recall correctly, South Africa had held this top position for some time. Do I hear you call for this number to be audited? Considering recent events, and those still unfolding, it is quite possible that this might ascend even further in 2018.
When contemplating slipping 14 positions, you might well rationalise it to not be that bad. If so, then consider it from a different perspective. In the WEF’s ‘2017/18 report, no factor placed in the top ten.

How does this compare with the 2016/17 report? Any guess? Eleven factors placed in the top ten, namely: strength of auditing and reporting standards (1st), protection of minority shareholders’ interests (1st), financing through the local equity market (1st), soundness of banks (2nd), financial services meeting business needs (2nd), regulation of securities exchanges (3rd), efficacy of corporate boards (3rd), effectiveness of antimonopoly policy (7th), efficiency of legal framework in settling disputes (9th), efficiency of legal framework in challenging regulations (10th), and quality of air transport infrastructure (10th).

Evidently, you do not need a graph to visually display South Africa’s economic trajectory. The South African economy is going down a rabbit hole. If you are not familiar with this expression, it means to enter into a situation or begin a process or journey that is particularly strange, problematic, difficult, complex or chaotic, especially one that becomes increasingly so as it develops or unfolds.

If you are sitting this one out, I would like to remind you of one of the wisdoms of Alice, in Alice in Wonderland: “Would you like an adventure now, or shall we have our tea first?”