As is no doubt by now well known, the Institute for Security Studies recently reported that its violence monitoring project had identified 2 880 public protests in this country between 2013 and 2015, of which 53% had been violent. These protests are often, if not nearly always, described as “service delivery protests”, triggered by the failure of (usually) local governments to supply – or, often, to keep in good repair and functional – key basic services such as water, sewerage and electricity. However, the Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation has, in its research, found that these protests are often not spontaneous but organised by local political leaders to strengthen their power bases and benefit themselves (politically and/or financially) as well as their communities.

(It should be noted that one of the most disturbing and serious cases of violent protests at local level in the past few months, in the Vuwani district of Limpopo province, is not service delivery related. Rather, it is the result of an explosive mixture of politics and cultural identities.)

Not that the people of all too many municipalities have no grounds for complaint; if anything, they have many grounds for complaint, indeed. The auditor- general recently released the 2014/15 Local Government Outcomes Audit Report. First, the good news: the number of municipalities receiving clean audits increased from 54 in 2013/2014 to 72 in the latest report – and in 2010/11, the number was just 13! But there are 272 municipalities in the country. Strikingly, the province with the highest proportion of municipalities receiving clean audits (73%) was the Western Cape, which is dominated by the party that is the official opposition at national level, the Democratic Alliance (DA). The province in second place, Gauteng (currently dominated by the national ruling party, the African National Congress, or ANC) trailed far behind with just 33% of its municipalities receiving clean audits. Third-place KwaZulu-Natal had a proportion of 30%. The Free State province (also ANC- dominated) had just one municipality with a clean audit, and this (Thabo Mofutsanyane) was the first local authority in that province to achieve this status.

However, the auditor-general’s report also found that irregular expenditure by municipalities had increased by more than 100% since 2010/11, reaching R14.75-billion (although one cannot jump to the conclusion that these monies were wasted or stolen). Over the same period, unauthorised expenditure rose by three times to R15.32-billion. Fruitless and wasteful expenditure came to R1.34-billion – and increase of more than R1-billion in comparison to 2010/11. On top of all this, spending by municipalities on financial reporting consultancy services continued to increase, reaching R892-million during 2014/15. Many municipalities still rely on consultants to prepare their financial statements.

Summing up, the auditor-general pointed out that the combined budgets of all 272 municipalities came to R347-billion, of which the municipalities with clean audits accounted for R134-billion. The auditor- general remarked that the financial health of 92% of municipalities was “concerning”.

One of the oddities of local politics in South Africa has been the approach often adopted by voters in poor and marginalised areas to elect and re-elect councillors on the basis of party loyalty and in complete disregard of their actual performance in office and then, when these officials fail (whether through incompetence or corruption), not to vote them out of office but to resort to violent protests (including, on occasion, attacks on the councillors themselves and/or their homes). This is not exactly the way democracy is meant to work! But is this period coming to an end? Could we see voters switch their votes to other parties? An Afrobarometer poll, published in May, found that 60% of those polled were unhappy with the performance of their councillors

Other Afro- barometer polls, also published last month, suggest increased support for opposition parties at local government level. But opinion polls in South Africa suffer from the difficulty of polling people living in poor and marginalised areas, especially informal settlements. And it seems more likely that middle class voters would be more willing to switch party allegiances when it comes to voting for their councillors. For what they’re worth, these and other polls suggest that support for the ANC is falling, while that for opposition parties, especially for the DA, but also for the Economic Freedom Fighters, is rising. Among the major cities, the ANC should hold eThekwini (centred on Durban) and Buffalo City (centred on East London) but could lose Tshwane (of which Pretoria is the core) and Nelson Mandela Bay (Port Elizabeth), for example. No one seriously expects the DA to lose Cape Town. Loss of Tshwane would be very embarrassing for the ANC, as it would mean that both the country’s administrative (Tshwane/Pretoria) and legislative (Cape Town) capitals would be in opposition hands. The loss of Nelson Mandela Bay would also be embarrassing, because of its name. Whatever the case, we’ll find out when the results come in from the local government elections, scheduled for August 3 (unless they are delayed by the Constitutional Court over issues regarding the voters roll).

These domestic concerns, plus others like the state of the economy and serious scandals embroiling the national government, explain why South Africans are tending not to notice major international developments that will affect the country, to a greater to lesser degree, during this year. These include the Presidential impeachment process in Brazil (which will affect the Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, or Brics, grouping), the British referendum on continued membership of the European Union (the results of which will be known by the time this column is published) and the US Presidential elections. The effects are likely to be a mixture of good and bad, whatever happens in each case. But they are topics for another time.