A trade policy review, or TPR, is a review mandated in the World Trade Organisation (WTO) Agreements, in terms of which its member countries’ trade and related policies are examined and evaluated at regular intervals. All WTO member countries are subject to the process, the frequency of which varies in accordance with a member country’s share of world trade.

As part of the review, significant developments that have an impact on the global trading system are also reviewed.

TPRs are nothing new, having first been introduced by the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, the WTO’s processor, which is one of the Bretton Woods trilogy institutions, the others being the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, commonly known as the World Bank. The WTO came into being on January 1, 1995.

The WTO is not the only institution that publishes country reviews. You might be familiar with the IMF’s yearly Article IV country consultations, which involve the IMF holding bilateral discussions with its members. The consultations entail a staff team visiting a member country to collect economic and financial information, and to discuss with government officials the country’s economic developments and policies.

South Africa’s 2023 Article IV consultation was released on March 22, and this was the topic of the instalment of this column published on April 7 and titled ‘Face the IMF’s music’. The conclusion of the column, which is overly expressive on what should be done, but silent on exactly how, states: “South Africa’s economic future depends vitally on State capture being tackled forcefully. “Criminal prosecution and enforcement of sanctions against corruption offences need to be strengthened, and credible and effective deterrence mechanisms established. Anticorruption agencies need to be equipped with sufficient legal power, capacity and operational autonomy to prevent political interference. “The new procurement legislation and regulations under preparation are an important opportunity to address some of the deficiencies in the public procurement process. They should help centralise procurement and increase the standardisation of processes and transparency requirements, in line with international good practice.”

Before considering the WTO’s recent review, let’s consider its second TPR, of March 24, 2003 – just over 20 years ago: “Mining and related activities remain at the centre of the South African economy and account for some 40% of earnings from merchandise exports. “The manufacturing sector, largely centred around mineral processing, contributes nearly 25% of the gross domestic product (GDP).”

Fast forward to October 27, 2023, and the release of the WTO’s fifth TPR of the Southern African Customs Union (Sacu) – all 352 pages of it. Now, with the crux of the 2003 review in mind, consider it against the ‘Main features of the economy’ of the 2023 review: “It has a relatively diversified economy dominated by the services sector (about 70% of GDP). “Financial services accounted for almost a quarter of gross value added. With a Gini coefficient of consumption (or income) per capita of 0.67 in 2018, South Africa is ranked by the World Bank as the ‘most unequal’ among 164 countries in the world. “The top 10% of the population hold 80.6% of financial assets. In 2015, close to half of its population was in chronic poverty (poor and highly unlikely to escape poverty). This could undermine inclusive growth. The unemployment rate rose from 25% in 2014 to 33% in 2022, while the unemployment rate of youth reached over 60%.”

And then, ultimately, the crux: “The economy is facing mounting challenges, including an undermaintained infrastructure, governance issues, and high exposure to underperforming State-owned enterprises and to the consequent risk of debt sustainability. Loadshedding in electricity generation, related to the underperformance of Eskom (a wholly State-owned enterprise and the country’s main power generator) and to the lack of maintenance of power generation facilities, is causing serious concerns for producers and investors. “Consequently, South Africa’s productivity is comparatively low and declining.”

Anything that you did not know? Somehow I doubt it. If anything, an argument could be made that the true state of the South African economy is still being understated. And there you have the consistency.