South Africa’s trade conditions remain fragile as the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s (Sacci’s) latest Trade Conditions Survey shows the seasonally adjusted Trade Activity Index (TAI) contracting from 53 in December to 46 in January.

However, year-on-year, the seasonally adjusted TAI was up six index points from the TAI of 40 of January 2016, the latest survey, released by Sacci on Tuesday, revealed.

The nonseasonally adjusted TAI was up to 45 from 44 in December 2016, indicating the strong seasonal factor present in trade conditions at year-end.

“The solid improvements in trade conditions sighted in December and January were owing to the surprising and unfortunate economic developments that impacted negatively on trade conditions at the end of 2015 and the beginning of 2016,” Sacci explained.

However, the survey noted that political uncertainty, community protests, unemployment, shortages in disposable income, slow economic growth and difficult export markets owing to a stronger rand continued to negatively affect trade.

The subindices on new orders, sales volumes, supplier deliveries and the backlog on received orders improved in January, with the sales volumes index increasing three points month-on-month to 48, new orders stable at 43 and a four-point slide to 44 in the inventory subindex.

“The sales and input price indices both eased slightly in January. Inflationary expectations remained unchanged but high at 67 and 74 respectively for sales and input prices,” the survey pointed out.

Meanwhile, the Trade Expectations Index (TEI), at 59 index points, remained in “positive terrain”, improving from 55 in December 2016, as expectations on sales, new orders, supplies and inventories recorded scores in positive territory above 55 index points.

Sacci commented that the employment subindex declined further to 44 in January from 45 in December 2016.

“The six-month employment prospects, however, improved slightly from 48 to 49, but remained in negative territory,” it concluded.