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Sacci TAI remains below 50 in September

13th October 2015

  

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Trade conditions continued to be in negative territory in September, with the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s (Sacci’s) seasonally adjusted composite Trade Activity Index (TAI) measuring 46, compared with 47 in August. 

The nonseasonally adjusted TAI remained at 46 and was two index points below the 48 recorded in September 2014.

“There has been no easing in the tight conditions of households, with debt remaining at about 78% of disposable income and real credit to households decreasing by 0.5% year-on-year. The possibility of higher interest rates is an inhibiting factor,” stated Sacci. 
 
Trade expectations for the next six months also remained muted, with the seasonally adjusted Trade Expectations Index (TEI) at 55 in September, compared with 56 in August and 62 in September 2014.
 
The sales volumes subindex declined from 48 in August to 46 in September, while new orders moved sideways at 44.  Supplier deliveries came under further pressure as the subindex decreased to 39 from 41 in August. 

The inventories subindex improved from 51 in August to 54 in September in preparing for the high retail season towards year-end.

The sales price subindex slipped to 56 from 51 in August, while the input prices subindex increased by four points to 72 from 68 in August. 

Price expectations on inputs eased by two index points to 74, while sales price expectations remained at the lower 60 for the subindex in September. Sales and new order expectations declined by four and one points respectively in September. 

The employment situation in the trade sector showed little change, with the current employment subindex up by one index point to 51, while the subindex on employment prospects declined by four points to 49.
 

Edited by Chanel de Bruyn
Creamer Media Senior Deputy Editor Online

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