R/€ = 15.26Change: -0.01
R/$ = 14.41Change: -0.03
Au 1057.95 $/ozChange: 0.07
Pt 835.50 $/ozChange: 0.00
Note: Search is limited to the most recent 250 articles. Set date range to access earlier articles.
Where? With... When?

And must exclude these words...
Close Main Search
Close Main Login
My Profile News Alerts Newsletters Logout Close Main Profile
Agriculture   Automotive   Chemicals   Competition Policy   Construction   Defence   Economy   Electricity   Energy   Environment   ICT   Metals   Mining   Science and Technology   Services   Trade   Transport & Logistics   Water  
What's On Press Office Tenders Suppliers Directory Research Jobs Announcements Letters Contact Us
RSS Feed
Article   Comments   Other News   Research   Magazine  
Sep 23, 2008

SA identifies key drivers to affect development with ‘Scenario 2025’ report

Presidency Policy Unit head Joel Netshitenze discusses technology as a driver of South Africa's development.
Africa|Education|Environment|Health|Innovation|Mining|Nuclear|Resources|Solar|Technology|Tourism|Water|Africa|Energy|Manufacturing|Services|Wind Energy|Power
Africa|Education|Environment|Health|Innovation|Mining|Nuclear|Resources|Solar|Technology|Tourism|Water|Africa|Energy|Manufacturing|Services|Wind Energy|Power
© Reuse this

Shifts in global economic and political power, resource constraints, the country's economic growth, governance, social fabric, and technology were likely to be the key driving forces (KDFs) that would affect South Africa's development up to 2025.

This was identified by the Policy Coordination and Advisory Services (PCAS) unit of the Presidency, as part of its Scenarios 2025: The future we chose? report.

PCAS stated that these scenarios were not predictions of South Africa's future or roadmaps, but rather "informed speculation" about some plausible paths that the country could have taken between 2009 and 2025.

"We are not saying this is what is going to happen. [These scenarios] identify probable, but plausible, trajectories for the evolution of South African society and the global environment as it impacts on us," the Presidency Policy Unit head Joel Netshitenze, said at the launch of the report in Pretoria on Tuesday.

PCAS had conducted 65 interviews with people from a range of backgrounds, including the media, businesses, government, trade unions, academics and civil society, among others.

Out of these interviews, the unit identified 24 factors that would shape the future of the country, which was then further defined to form the seven KDFs that were likely to affect South Africa's development.

Firstly, the unit noted that the industrialisation and growth of China and India, as well as their growing demand for resources and markets was changing the world, making a shift in global economic power a possibility.

The report pointed out that China's gross domestic product (GDP) was expected to be similar to that of the US by 2025, if current trends continued.

The US's GDP was currently more than double the GDP of China and India combined.

This meant that China's GDP, over a period of three decades, would have to grow at double the rate of the GDP of the US or the European Union by 2025.

The report also noted that it appeared that the growth of Brazil, Russia, India and China, as well as the "oil bounty" of Middle Eastern countries, would do more for Africa's economic growth in the next 20 years than 60 years of investment and aid from Western countries had done.

However, the unit noted that there were also dangers, as China and Russia could be "as cavalier in their disregard for democracy and human rights as the US and ex-colonial powers have been in the past".

Further, Netshitenze commented that the fastest growing economies in the world would be those that increased their ability to trade, adding that trade would account for more than half of global GDP by 2025.

The unit also noted that by 2025 Africa's "economic clout" would also have grown significantly, but that South Africa may not be the main driver behind this.

The report noted that other continental powers could grow faster, or could be led more effectively than South Africa.

Meanwhile, the report also noted that a shift in global political powers was the second KDF, with shifts in international power relationships partially reflecting a shift in economic power.

The report explained that the US's military budget remained larger than those of the next 15 biggest economies in the world, combined.

Despite the US expected to still have the "most formidable" armed force by 2025, this would be on a much smaller scale than in 2008.

Further, PCAS noted in the report that a multi-lateral approach to global problems was likely to have been followed by 2025, which would have led to an expansion of early intervention mechanisms, the rapid deployment of peacekeepers and more united action by the UN, the G8, and other similar organisations.

It was expected that, over the next decade, there would be fewer armed conflicts in the world.

However, this could be offset by possible conflicts over resources, the report stated.

Meanwhile, South Africa could, in future, no longer be the leader in "reshaping elements of international discourse", with other power blocs in East and West Africa challenging its role in this regard.

South Africa was also likely to pursue more narrow national and regional interests in future, noted the report.

The report, meanwhile, asserted that nuclear, hydrogen, solar and wind energy would be the predominant emerging energy sources by 2025, with the world moving away from fossil fuels.

However, it explained that this transition to new fuel sources might not be managed well, leading to higher food production costs and negative effects on international tourism.

Further, Netshitenze said that the growing shortage and deterioration of other critical resources, such as soil, air and water, were likely to become global issues.


PCAS explained that three additional KDFs would mirror the aforementioned global drivers, in the local arena.

Firstly, South Africa's economic performance would be a key driver, with the speed of growth, the competitiveness and productiveness of the local economy, and the sustainability of job creation all important aspects that the country had to consider.

Further, the report questioned whether the decline in South Africa's manufacturing, mining and agricultural sectors, in relation to their relative contribution to GDP, could be arrested and reversed and how this would be done.

In addition, it stated that South Africa's relationship with Africa would be a very important factor in the country's economic growth.

Secondly, governance in South Africa was another KDF, with the report stating that the country's ability to deal with health, education, crime and corruption would be important going forward.

Also, government would have to have the ability to promote competitiveness in order to grow the economy, and should not inhibit innovation, productivity and social inclusion.

Further, the report stated that government had the resources to "fashion" a basic sense of nationhood and some sense of human solidarity, which would cut across gender, race and ethnic divisions.

The creation of social cohesion would, thus, be another KDF for South Africa's development going forward.


Meanwhile, Netshitenze noted that technology would be an important, crosscutting KDF, which would assist in "promoting democracy and openness".

It was expected that billions of people across the world would have access to always-on, high bandwidth communications devices by 2025.

The report explained that while access to technology was likely to remain uneven, the poor were embracing technology, "exploiting it as a key avenue out of disconnectedness and penury".

Further, the report noted that South Africa, in particular, could benefit from the increased use of fuel-cell technology.

The country could also benefit if the "oil age" gave way to the "hydrogen age" and if South Africa's pebble bed nuclear technology was more widely applied, stated the report.


PCAS stated that this report was a "companion piece" to the Fifteen Year Review report.

It would be supplied to all tiers of all government departments, who could then test their policies against these scenarios to see whether there were any potential future pitfalls or options that they could adopt or avoid.

Edited by: Mariaan Webb
Creamer Media Senior Researcher and Deputy Editor Online
© Reuse this Comment Guidelines (150 word limit)
Latest News
French conglomerate Bollore may have to halt work on the Niger to Benin section of its giant West Africa rail project after a rival company won a court order to stop it going ahead. The dispute concerns rival rail schemes in the area.
A week ahead of the second annual gathering of the Forum on China–Africa Cooperation (Focac), in Johannesburg, the JSE is rolling out the proverbial red carpet for Chinese investors looking to Africa’s largest bourse for possible investment opportunities, calling...
The South African National Roads Agency Limited (Sanral) applied for leave to appeal on Friday against the Western Cape High Court judgment that set aside the approvals that would enable it to toll sections of the N1 and N2 freeways in Cape Town. This prompted the...
Recent Research Reports
Water 2015: A review of South Africa's water sector (PDF Report)
Creamer Media’s Water 2015 Report considers the aforementioned issues, not only in the South African context but also in the African and global context in terms of supply and demand, water stress and insecurity, and access to water and sanitation, besides others.
Input Sector Review: Pumps 2015 (PDF Report)
Creamer Media’s 2015 Input Sector Review on Pumps provides an overview of South Africa’s pumps industry with particular focus on pump manufacture and supply, aftermarket services, marketing strategies, local and export demand, imports, sector support, investment...
Liquid Fuels 2015: A review of South Africa's liquid fuels sector (PDF Report)
Creamer Media’s Liquid Fuels 2015 Report examines these issues in the context of South Africa’s business environment; oil and gas exploration; fuel pricing; the development of the country’s biofuels industry; the logistics of transporting liquid fuels; and...
Road and Rail 2015: A review of South Africa's road and rail sectors (PDF Report)
Creamer Media’s Road and Rail 2015 report examines South Africa’s road and rail transport system, with particular focus on the size and state of the country’s road and rail infrastructure and network, the funding and maintenance of these respective networks, and...
Defence 2015: A review of South Africa's defence sector (PDF Report)
Creamer Media’s Coal 2015 report examines South Africa’s coal industry with regards to the business environment, the key participants in the sector, local demand, export sales and coal logistics, projects being undertaken by the large and smaller participants in the...
Real Economy Year Book 2015 (PDF Report)
There are very few beacons of hope on South Africa’s economic horizon. Economic growth is weak, unemployment is rising, electricity supply is insufficient to meet demand and/or spur growth, with poor prospects for many of the commodities mined and exported. However,...
This Week's Magazine
The BMW Group will invest R6-billion at BMW Group South Africa’s (BMW SA’s) Rosslyn plant to produce the next-generation X3 sports-activity vehicle (SAV) for the local and export markets. Rosslyn will continue production of the current 3 Series through its lifecycle,...
The lack of consequences for poor performance and transgressions on the part of contractors remains a significant hurdle to tackling South Africa’s service delivery challenges, delegates heard at the Consulting Engineers South Africa Infrastructure Indaba, on...
City of Ekurhuleni executive mayor Mondli Gungubele earlier this month officially named the city’s bus rapid transit (BRT) system, Harambee.
NICK CHRISTODOULOU As about 58% of data stored by organisations is dark, they must identify this dark data to expose risks and valuable information
About 58% of unstructured data stored by companies is dark data, which means that the value or regulatory importance of the data has not been determined. Subsequently, most of the stored data add costs, rather than increasing revenue or reduce regulatory risks, says...
BRIAN VERWEY Effective management, review and administration of non-core elements can improve business operations and increase revenue and decrease unforeseen risks
Effective logistics, import/export and manufacturing consulting services require detailed industry knowledge and experience, but can add significant value to these industries by providing expert advice on various technical elements in their value chains, says...
Alert Close
Embed Code Close
Research Reports Close
Research Reports are a product of the
Research Channel Africa. Reports can be bought individually or you can gain full access to all reports as part of a Research Channel Africa subscription.
Find Out More Buy Report
Engineering News
Completely Re-Engineered
Experience it now. Click here
*website to launch in a few weeks
Subscribe Now for $96 Close
Subscribe Now for $96