http://www.engineeringnews.co.za
  SEARCH
Login
R/€ = 16.84Change: -0.01
R/$ = 14.66Change: -0.05
Au 1280.23 $/ozChange: -7.02
Pt 1058.00 $/ozChange: -9.50
 
 
Note: Search is limited to the most recent 250 articles. Set date range to access earlier articles.
Where? With... When?








Start
 
End
 
 
And must exclude these words...
Close Main Search
Close Main Login
My Profile News Alerts Newsletters Logout Close Main Profile
 
Agriculture   Automotive   Chemicals   Competition Policy   Construction   Defence   Economy   Electricity   Energy   Environment   ICT   Metals   Mining   Science and Technology   Services   Trade   Transport & Logistics   Water  
What's On Press Office Tenders Suppliers Directory Research Jobs Announcements Letters About Us
 
 
 
RSS Feed
Article   Comments   Other News   Research   Magazine  
 
 
Aug 03, 2012

SA faces downside risks from Europe and China, bank warns

Back
GDP|Africa|Efficiency|Eskom|Finance|India|Industrial|Power|Africa|Europe|Brazil|China|South Africa|Bank|Energy|Industrial Products|Products|Gill Marcus|Pravin Gordhan|Sandeep Mahajan|Simulation
|Africa|Efficiency|Eskom|Finance|Industrial|Power|Africa|||Energy|Products||
gdp-city|africa-company|efficiency|eskom|finance|india|industrial|power|africa|europe|brazil|china|south-africa|bank|energy|industrial-products|products|gill-marcus|pravin-gordhan|sandeep-mahajan|simulation



The World Bank has lowered its gross domestic product (GDP) growth outlook for South Africa from 3.1% in November to 2.5% and has warned that the performance of Africa’s largest economy could be weaker still if the eurozone crisis deepened further.

The bank’s lead economist for South Africa, Sandeep Mahajan, said the 2.5% ‘base case’ – which is also below the 2.7% forecast by Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan in February – was premised on world GDP growth of 2.5% during 2012, a 0.3% contraction in the eurozone and lower growth in the key emerging markets of China, India and Brazil.

Earlier, Gordhan indicated that growth was likely to fall short of the 2.7% forecast of February, after the South African Reserve Bank, which cut interest rates on July 19, trimmed its growth forecast to 2.7%, from 2.9%.

Governor Gill Marcus warned that risks to the country’s GDP projection were to the downside, particularly if the economic stagnation in the eurozone intensified.

South Africa, the World Bank warned, was vulnerable to both the slowing economies of Europe, which consumed many of its industrial products, as well as to a slowdown in the rate of expansion in China, which consumed many of its commodities.

The country was particularly sensitive to changes in the eurozone’s outlook, with Mahajan indicating that for every one percentage point change in the territory’s GDP, South Africa’s GDP adjusted by 0.8 of a percentage point.

The strong correlation meant that the downside risks to South Africa associated with a decline in the eurozone beyond that which was currently being projected were material.

To illustrate this vulnerability, the World Bank had developed two downside-risk scenarios: the first assumes a severe credit squeeze in one of two eurozone members, with limited contagion, while the second was premised on a “disorderly resolution to the crisis”.

The model shows that, under the first scenario, a further 1.5 points would be shaved off South Africa’s already fragile growth. Under the second, the simulation indicated that 2.2 percentage points could be lopped off the country’s growth outlook.

However, the downside risks were not limited to the resolution of the economic crisis in Europe. Mahajan warned that lower commodity prices, precipitated by any further cooling of the Chinese economy, represented a major potential threat.

The bank showed that a 20% fall in non-oil commodity prices would shave 1.7 percentage points off South Africa’s growth rate. In terms of the model, “South Africa is among the ten countries to be hit most by the drop in commodity prices”, the bank’s biannual ‘South Africa Economic Update’ indicated.

Under the baseline scenario, the report expected South Africa’s GDP growth to recover to 3.5% by 2014, which Mahajan described as the new growth base for the coming 15 years.

The figure fell well short of the 7% highlighted as necessary by the South African government to deal with the country’s chronic unemployment rate, which currently stood at above 25%.

Mahajan concurred that it would be insufficient to generate the jobs needed to deal with the problem, but said the outlook was constrained by South Africa’s prevailing power shortages.

“An important constraint on a faster pickup in growth is likely to be bottlenecks in electricity supply, which is already rubbing against peak demand and will continue to do so until fresh large-scale generation capacity comes on board and Eskom’s demand-side management measures for greater energy efficiency take firmer root,” the report noted.

Edited by: Martin Zhuwakinyu
Creamer Media Senior Deputy Editor

To subscribe email subscriptions@creamermedia.co.za or click here
To advertise email advertising@creamermedia.co.za or click here
 
Comment Guidelines (150 word limit)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Other News This Week News
The two spent-fuel pools at Eskom’s 1 800 MW Koeberg nuclear power station, in the Western Cape, will be full by 2018, increasing the urgency on the State-owned utility to begin pursuing alternative storage options. Koeberg has, over the past 32 years, accumulated a...
South Africa lacks the skills necessary to implement the government’s plan to build 9.6 GWe of new nuclear energy capacity, warns nuclear-qualified Quality Strategies International CEO David Crawford. “Apart from the concern about the affordability of the programme,...
DOROS HADJIZENONOS The 700-series devices provide network security monitoring, app control, URL filtering, VPN security, antivirus, antispam, antibot, and advanced intrusion prevention and detection functionality
Cybersecurity multinational Check Point has released its latest 700-series cybersecurity systems for small businesses, which draw on its international threat intelligence to provide up-to-date cybersecurity, says Check Point South Africa country manager Doros...
More
 
 
Latest News
A new World Bank report warns that some regions of the world, including parts of Africa, could see their growth rates decline by as much as 6% by 2050 as a result of water-related losses, with water scarcity also exacerbated by climate change. Titled ‘High and Dry:...
Human Settlements Minister Lindiwe Sisulu
The Department of Human Settlements (DHS) has approved 101 “catalytic” public–private partnership (PPP) projects, valued at around R340-billion – more than half of which would be sourced from the private sector – that would mobilise and coordinate private-sector...
By 2050, agricultural productivity in Africa has the potential to increase by 70%, through technological innovation leveraged by the Internet of Things (IoT). This would meet the continent’s growing food demand which, based on population growth, is set to grow by...
More
 
 
Recent Research Reports
Automotive 2016: A review of South Africa's automotive sector (PDF Report)
Creamer Media’s Automotive 2016 Report provides an overview of South Africa’s automotive industry over the past 12 months. The report provides insight into local demand and production, vehicle imports and exports, investment and competitiveness in the sector, as well...
Energy Roundup – April 2016 (PDF Report)
The April 2016 roundup covers activities across South Africa for March 2016 and includes details of a North Gauteng High Court Judge’s dismissal of a court application to postpone the 9.4% electricity tariff increase, which the National Energy Regulator of South...
Electricity 2016: A review of South Africa's electricity sector (PDF Report)
Creamer Media’s Electricity 2016 report provides an overview of South Africa’s electricity sector, focusing on State-owned power utility Eskom and independent power producers, electricity planning, transmission, distribution and the theft thereof, besides other issues.
Energy Roundup – March 2016 (PDF Report)
The March 2016 roundup covers activities across South Africa for February 2016 and includes details of the Department of Energy’s plans to announce the preferred bidders for the first tranche of the coal independent power producer procurement programme; the Council...
Steel 2016: A review of South Africa's steel sector (PDF Report)
Creamer Media’s Steel 2016 Report examines South Africa’s steel industry over the past 12 months. The report provides insight into the global steel market and and particularly into South South Africa’s steel sector, including production and consumption, main...
Construction 2016: A review of South Africa's construction industry (PDF Report)
Creamer Media’s Construction 2016 Report examines South Africa’s construction industry over the past 12 months. The report provides insight into the business environment; key participants; local demand; geographic diversification; corporate activity; black economic...
 
 
 
 
 
This Week's Magazine
The two spent-fuel pools at Eskom’s 1 800 MW Koeberg nuclear power station, in the Western Cape, will be full by 2018, increasing the urgency on the State-owned utility to begin pursuing alternative storage options. Koeberg has, over the past 32 years, accumulated a...
South Africa lacks the skills necessary to implement the government’s plan to build 9.6 GWe of new nuclear energy capacity, warns nuclear-qualified Quality Strategies International CEO David Crawford. “Apart from the concern about the affordability of the programme,...
DOROS HADJIZENONOS The 700-series devices provide network security monitoring, app control, URL filtering, VPN security, antivirus, antispam, antibot, and advanced intrusion prevention and detection functionality
Cybersecurity multinational Check Point has released its latest 700-series cybersecurity systems for small businesses, which draw on its international threat intelligence to provide up-to-date cybersecurity, says Check Point South Africa country manager Doros...
Daimler Trucks and Buses Southern Africa (DTBSA) saw a marked slip in new-vehicle sales in 2015 compared with 2014, with sales dropping from 5 897 units to 5 300 units. The decline came as the South African new truck and bus market declined from 31 558 units in 2014...
Group of 20 (G-20) economies threatened to penalise havens that don’t share information on their banking clients after the leak of the Panama Papers provoked a global uproar over tax evasion. The G-20 will consider “defensive measures” against financial centers and...
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Alert Close
Embed Code Close
content
Research Reports Close
Research Reports are a product of the
Research Channel Africa. Reports can be bought individually or you can gain full access to all reports as part of a Research Channel Africa subscription.
Find Out More Buy Report
 
 
Close
Engineering News
Completely Re-Engineered
Experience it now. Click here
*website to launch in a few weeks
Subscribe Now for $149 Close
Subscribe Now for $149