http://www.engineeringnews.co.za
  SEARCH
Login
R/€ = 14.17Change: 0.03
R/$ = 11.07Change: 0.01
Au 1238.28 $/ozChange: -4.47
Pt 1258.00 $/ozChange: 3.00
 
 
Note: Search is limited to the most recent 250 articles. Set date range to access earlier articles.
Where? With... When?








Start
 
End
 
 
And must exclude these words...
Close Main Search
Close Main Login
My Profile News Alerts Newsletters Logout Close Main Profile
 
Agriculture   Automotive   Chemicals   Competition Policy   Construction   Defence   Economy   Electricity   Energy   Environment   ICT   Metals   Mining   Science and Technology   Services   Trade   Transport & Logistics   Water  
What's On Press Office Tenders Suppliers Directory Research Jobs Announcements Contact Us
 
 
 
RSS Feed
Article   Comments   Other News   Research   Magazine  
 
 
Aug 03, 2012

SA faces downside risks from Europe and China, bank warns

Back
GDP|Africa|Eskom|Industrial|Africa|Europe|Brazil|China|India|South Africa|Bank|Energy|Industrial Products|Products|Gill Marcus|Power|Pravin Gordhan|Sandeep Mahajan|Simulation
|Africa|Eskom|Industrial|Africa|||Energy|Products|Power||
gdp-city|africa-company|eskom|industrial|africa|europe|brazil|china|india|south-africa|bank|energy|industrial-products|products|gill-marcus|power|pravin-gordhan|sandeep-mahajan|simulation
© Reuse this



The World Bank has lowered its gross domestic product (GDP) growth outlook for South Africa from 3.1% in November to 2.5% and has warned that the performance of Africa’s largest economy could be weaker still if the eurozone crisis deepened further.

The bank’s lead economist for South Africa, Sandeep Mahajan, said the 2.5% ‘base case’ – which is also below the 2.7% forecast by Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan in February – was premised on world GDP growth of 2.5% during 2012, a 0.3% contraction in the eurozone and lower growth in the key emerging markets of China, India and Brazil.

Earlier, Gordhan indicated that growth was likely to fall short of the 2.7% forecast of February, after the South African Reserve Bank, which cut interest rates on July 19, trimmed its growth forecast to 2.7%, from 2.9%.

Governor Gill Marcus warned that risks to the country’s GDP projection were to the downside, particularly if the economic stagnation in the eurozone intensified.

South Africa, the World Bank warned, was vulnerable to both the slowing economies of Europe, which consumed many of its industrial products, as well as to a slowdown in the rate of expansion in China, which consumed many of its commodities.

The country was particularly sensitive to changes in the eurozone’s outlook, with Mahajan indicating that for every one percentage point change in the territory’s GDP, South Africa’s GDP adjusted by 0.8 of a percentage point.

The strong correlation meant that the downside risks to South Africa associated with a decline in the eurozone beyond that which was currently being projected were material.

To illustrate this vulnerability, the World Bank had developed two downside-risk scenarios: the first assumes a severe credit squeeze in one of two eurozone members, with limited contagion, while the second was premised on a “disorderly resolution to the crisis”.

The model shows that, under the first scenario, a further 1.5 points would be shaved off South Africa’s already fragile growth. Under the second, the simulation indicated that 2.2 percentage points could be lopped off the country’s growth outlook.

However, the downside risks were not limited to the resolution of the economic crisis in Europe. Mahajan warned that lower commodity prices, precipitated by any further cooling of the Chinese economy, represented a major potential threat.

The bank showed that a 20% fall in non-oil commodity prices would shave 1.7 percentage points off South Africa’s growth rate. In terms of the model, “South Africa is among the ten countries to be hit most by the drop in commodity prices”, the bank’s biannual ‘South Africa Economic Update’ indicated.

Under the baseline scenario, the report expected South Africa’s GDP growth to recover to 3.5% by 2014, which Mahajan described as the new growth base for the coming 15 years.

The figure fell well short of the 7% highlighted as necessary by the South African government to deal with the country’s chronic unemployment rate, which currently stood at above 25%.

Mahajan concurred that it would be insufficient to generate the jobs needed to deal with the problem, but said the outlook was constrained by South Africa’s prevailing power shortages.

“An important constraint on a faster pickup in growth is likely to be bottlenecks in electricity supply, which is already rubbing against peak demand and will continue to do so until fresh large-scale generation capacity comes on board and Eskom’s demand-side management measures for greater energy efficiency take firmer root,” the report noted.

Edited by: Martin Zhuwakinyu
© Reuse this Comment Guidelines (150 word limit)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Other News This Week News
The broad-based black economic-empowerment (BBBEE) alignment process in the con-struction sector has begun, dur-ing which the sector codes of the Construction Sector Charter Council (CSCC) will be aligned with the revised Codes of Good Practice (CoGP), which come...
It is second time lucky for Toby Venter. Ten years ago he negotiated to buy the Kyalami racetrack, but “the deal did not materialise”.
Environmental solutions company I-Cat started construction work on its R22-million, 1 949 m2 environmentally sustainable office and warehouse facility, commissioned by I-CAT Environmental Solutions, at a launch event in October. The new sustainable I-CAT campus,...
More
 
 
Latest News
Updated 6 hours ago The Cape Town International Convention Centre (CTICC) has outperformed its targets over the past financial year and contributed R3.1-billion to the gross domestic product in the 2013/14 financial year. CTICC CEO Julie-May Ellingson said the convention centre had been...
Public Enterprises Minister Lynne Brown
Updated 7 hours ago Public Enterprises Minister Lynne Brown has released details of the remuneration of the chairpersons and nonexecutive directors of the various State-owned company boards falling under her Ministry. The remuneration figures, which are attached, are based on figures...
Updated 7 hours ago Installed wind power capacity could swell by 530% to 2,000 gigawatts (GW) by 2030, supplying up to 19% of global electricity, a report from a trade association and Greenpeace said on Tuesday. It said installed wind energy capacity totalled 318 GW at the end of last...
More
 
 
Recent Research Reports
Defence 2014: A review of South Africa's defence industry (PDF Report)
Creamer Media’s Defence 2014 report examines South Africa’s defence industry, with particular focus on the key participants in the sector, the innovations that have come out of the sector, local and export demand, South Africa’s controversial multibillion-rand...
Road and Rail 2014: A review of South Africa's road and rail infrastructure (PDF report)
Creamer Media’s Road and Rail 2014 report examines South Africa’s road and rail transport system, with particular focus on the size and state of the country’s road and rail network, the funding and maintenance of these respective networks, and the push to move road...
Real Economy Year Book 2014 (PDF Report)
This edition drills down into the performance and outlook for a variety of sectors, including automotive, construction, electricity, transport, steel, water, coal, gold, iron-ore and platinum.
Real Economy Insight: Automotive 2014 (PDF Report)
This four-page brief covers key developments in the automotive industry over the past 12 months, including an overview of South Africa’s automotive market, trade figures, production and the policies influencing the sector.
Real Economy Insight: Construction 2014 (PDF Report)
This five-page brief covers key developments in the construction industry over the past 12 months. It provides an overview of the sector and includes details of employment in the sector, infrastructure and municipal spending, as well as insight into companies’...
Real Economy Insight: Electricity 2014 (PDF Report)
This five-page brief covers key developments in the electricity industry over the past 12 months, including details of State-owned power utility Eskom’s generation activities, funding and tariffs, independent power producers and prospects for the sector.
 
 
 
 
 
This Week's Magazine
The broad-based black economic-empowerment (BBBEE) alignment process in the con-struction sector has begun, dur-ing which the sector codes of the Construction Sector Charter Council (CSCC) will be aligned with the revised Codes of Good Practice (CoGP), which come...
It is second time lucky for Toby Venter. Ten years ago he negotiated to buy the Kyalami racetrack, but “the deal did not materialise”.
Environmental solutions company I-Cat started construction work on its R22-million, 1 949 m2 environmentally sustainable office and warehouse facility, commissioned by I-CAT Environmental Solutions, at a launch event in October. The new sustainable I-CAT campus,...
IAN EVANS AirWatch file synchronisation and sharing system was initially designed for a large airline company
Effective file synchronisation and sharing across an organisation’s structures can provide the basis for robust mobile-device and document management while maintaining proper backup, version control and content distribution. These are the lessons learned by complex...
Hotel group Carlson Rezidor currently holds the largest hotel pipeline in Africa with 30 hotels and 6 300 rooms under development. The hotel group develops and operates Radisson Blu in the upper upscale segment and Park Inn by Radisson in the mid-market segment. With...
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Alert Close
Embed Code Close
content
Research Reports Close
Research Reports are a product of the
Research Channel Africa. Reports can be bought individually or you can gain full access to all reports as part of a Research Channel Africa subscription.
Find Out More Buy Report
 
 
Close
Engineering News
Completely Re-Engineered
Experience it now. Click here
*website to launch in a few weeks