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System stability central as renewables’ share of global energy market rises

29th September 2017

By: Anine Kilian

Contributing Editor Online

     

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The world’s energy system will decarbonise over the next three decades, says advisory services and risk management company DNV GL Africa business manager Robert O’Keefe.

Unpacking DNV GL’s ‘Energy Transition Outlook 2017’ report at the recent Nordic Energy Days conference, in Pretoria, he noted that, 30 years from now, total energy- related carbon dioxide emissions would be half of what they are today.

“Energy demand will plateau after 2030, mainly owing to efficiencies in the generation and use of energy, even as the world makes steady progress with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals,” O’Keefe said.

The report points out that oil and coal currently provide 29% and 28% respectively of the world’s global energy supply.

“By 2019, coal will be overtaken by gas and, in 2034, gas will surpass oil to become the largest energy source,” he noted.

O’Keefe pointed out that fossil fuels’ share of the world’s primary energy mix would decline from 81% currently to 52% by 2050.

Hydropower, biomass and nuclear would remain flat, while solar and wind would grow rapidly and represent 13% and 14% respectively of the world’s primary energy supply by 2050, he noted.

O’Keefe further noted that the estimated energy demand by midcentury would be 430 exajoules (EJ), up from 400 EJ in 2015.

He noted the modest 7% increase contrasted with the 35% rise in global energy demand that had occurred over the last 15 years.

The slowdown in demand growth, he said, was related to a decelerating population, slow productivity growth and faster improvements in energy efficiency and electrification in heating and transport.

“Our forecast shows a more dynamic transition on the supply side of the equation, with renewable-energy growth leading the charge.”

Other rapid changes include shifts in shale gas and falling coal demand in China and other developing countries, he noted.

“The key issue, however, is rapid changes within the electricity mix,” he said.

He highlighted that renewables would contribute the lion’s share of global electricity generation.

With this increased amount of variable power, the stability of the electricity system will become crucial.

Edited by Chanel de Bruyn
Creamer Media Senior Deputy Editor Online

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