A number of trends and influences are driving change in the energy sector, with a collective drive towards a safer, more environment-friendly, reliable and sustainable future.

Leading a panel discussion at the Africa Energy Indaba, on Tuesday, Strategic Concepts chairperson Sean Cleary said the transition to a low-carbon economy could not be insensitive to social needs.

“Africa faces special challenges, with the youngest median population and also the fastest-growing population – the population will double to 1.3-billion people by 2050. The rate of urbanisation in Africa is faster than anywhere in the world, other than portions of Asia.

“By 2050, 2.5-billion more people will be in cities than there were in 2015 and 90% of that urbanisation will be occurring in Africa and Asia. The implications for consumption of energy are enormous, and yet there are around 600-million people without electricity access in Africa,” Cleary said.

New Partnership for Africa’s Development (Nepad) Planning and Coordinating Agency CEO Dr Ibrahim Mayaki said the main challenge policymakers would face in the next 30 years, would be to create jobs for 400-million people that have already been born.

“To create these jobs, we will have to go through adapted industrialisation. We are late-comers in the global industrialisation context. We are going through important technological changes and we are still not sure what impact these innovations will have.

“We are in a trial and error process, which is hard for institutions and policymakers to manage. We need to think regionally to implement optimal solutions. As we put in place the continental free trade area, it will enhance regional markets, and for these markets to be able to provide potential for creation of jobs, energy will be critical.”

Mayaki added that, in terms of the Africa Power Vision, which was aligned to the Agenda 2063 programme, the connectivity of power pools needed to be thought about in a long-term perspective.

“At the end of this process, within the Africa Power Vision, we need an integrated transmission continental framework. That does not put aside the necessity to think locally and nationally, which is necessary to bring energy to rural areas. Energy will also be critical for agricultural transformation to supply the food needs there will be with the growing population,” he pointed out.

Nepad Planning and Coordination Agency adviser Professor Mosad Elmissiry, meanwhile, highlighted that the energy demand in Africa would, by 2040, be four times what it is now. This would require energy generation to increase accordingly.

“With energy generation needing to be ramped up, we have to think about whether we can transport such an enormous amount of energy. Current transmission networks have bottlenecks, not all countries are connected and development of major projects are in different stages in each part of Africa.”

Additionally, Elmissiry noted that transformation and transportation in each country had its own master plan for development.

“Another trend from an Africa point of view, is a move towards creating a regional energy market. Bilateral agreements will continue, but we will see more trade in the market."

Ultimately, he said there was a concept of creating continental power networks. "First, the focus is on transmission networks, which are contained in power pool visions, linking regions together, and then we will have the Africa Transmission Network connected to Europe.”

Elmissiry added that the entire continent would be connected to Europe and then Asia, as well as to the Middle East.

“Africa will have the largest energy market, on a regional and continental level. When the time comes, when Africa has excess, they can export to these other three regions. It will start region by region, building on what each power pool wants to do, connecting all utilities on a national level and then regional level,” he explained.