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Reflections on the IRP2016

7th April 2017

By: Terry Mackenzie-hoy

     

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You probably do not know, but there has been much discussion concerning the Integrated Resource Plan of 2016 (IRP2016). I am sure you have heard people discussing it at cocktail parties and children exchanging their views on the playground during big break. In fact, just the other day, I was at the traffic lights and a man was standing there holding up a sign with ‘Support the IRP2016’ inscribed on it. Nah. I am joking. He was not standing – he was sitting.

But, seriously, folks; for those of you who have missed this most valuable item, which dominates book club conversations, the IRP2016 is a plan that is meant to set out the future development of the South African electricity generation system.

It is not that complicated. One draws up a table and says, for instance, that, by 2030, in South Africa, there should be facilities for generating 20 000 MW of electrical power using coal as a fuel, 15 000 MW using nuclear power, 10 000 MW using renewable-energy sources and 5 000 MW from natural gas.

Then, for example, by 2050, that mixture should change to a different mix. I have made these figures up, but you get the idea – it is a plan. In theory, government passes the plan around for comment by industry and municipalities and everybody agrees and, thereafter, government policy is driven by the IRP.

Now, in one corner of the ring are those people who support renewable energy. In their lives, the number of wind turbines that should be erected is unlimited. The number of solar-powered plants could just increase every year. Coal mines should be shut down. No nuclear power should be allowed.

The flaw with this is that solar power goes off at night and wind power is unreliable. The major industrial part of this country is not at the coast and there is virtually no wind at the industrial centres located inland. One cannot run an iron-ore smelter on solar and wind power. Consequently, these have to be backed up.

In the other corner of the ring are those who support new nuclear power and coal power and are happy to tolerate renewable energy, but not to the point that they have to pay to subsidise the fuelling of gas turbines when wind power does not run and it is night time.

I have no intention of boring you by going on and on about what generation mix I think is best. The fact of the matter is that there is a whole range of responses out there, and all of these responses push a certain angle. The Council for Scientific and Industrial Research seems to push an agenda for wind power more than is reasonable. Other lobby groups are for nuclear.

One thing we do know is that not a single member of the South African Parliament can read through any of the proposals, reports or counterproposals and understand them. Get a group of Parliamentarians together and say “levelised cost of electricity” or “loss of load probability” or “cost of underserved energy”, and they will be asleep faster than my dog Tommy after a good meal.

But we need not worry. In 2015, President Jacob Zuma appointed a special energy adviser, Silas Zimu. In a press release, the Presidency stated: “Mr Zimu joins the Presidency from the private sector and brings extensive experience in both business and strategic management in energy. “He previously served at, among other institutions, Eskom as an engineer and in different management positions and at Johannesburg City Power as MD.”

So, we do not think the President will be completely uninformed. Well, yes . . . no. Zimu is CEO of Suzlon Wind Energy South Africa. Thus, it is sure he is not hard for nuclear, not so?
It would be funny if it was not so serious. To have an unreliable power system will destroy this country economically. Very unfortunately, I do not see that the IRP2016 is taken seriously. It is being used by ruthlessly self-interested people to push technologies that make money for them but are not in the best interests of South Africa. Let us hope for the best.

Edited by Martin Zhuwakinyu
Creamer Media Senior Deputy Editor

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