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Potential impact of COP 21 resolutions on coal, uranium ‘remains contested’

24th March 2016

By: Ilan Solomons

Creamer Media Staff Writer

  

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The reality is that countries will not “ditch” fossil fuels until clean energy alternatives are viable, states diversified active asset manager Allianz Global Investors environmental, social and corporate governance analyst Robbie Miles.

“Electricity generation, the largest source of emissions, which accounts for about 36% of global [greenhouse-gas emissions (GGEs)], is perhaps the low-hanging fruit, given that the renewables, energy storage and software that exist today can already compete, unsubsidised, with fossil fuels in some parts of the world,” Miles points out.

The twenty-first Conference of the Parties (COP 21) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which took place in Paris, France, in December, resulted in significant global agreements on climate change. However, its potential impact on the coal and uranium sectors remains contested.

One hundred and ninety-six nations have agreed to limit global warming to “well below” 2 °C this century and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C and ensure that a net GGE neutrality is achieved in the second half of this century.

It has also been agreed that all parties will establish binding commitments in the form of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and pursue domestic measures to achieve these goals.

Miles notes that, while the political ambition of the agreement is praiseworthy, as countries reached consensus on the urgency to act, the technical challenge of simultaneously decarbonising and growing the global economy is still daunting.

World Coal Association (WCA) CEO Benjamin Sporton tells Mining Weekly that the International Energy Agency predicts that, by 2040, thermal coal’s share of worldwide electricity generation might decrease to around 30%, compared with 40% currently, but that the amount of electricity generated from coal is forecast to increase by about 24%.

“This is important . . . as the decline in the share of global electricity generation does not equate to a reduction in the amount of coal that will be used,” he stresses.

Sporton says the WCA recognises that there is an international objective regarding GGEs and addressing climate change, but he also emphasises the importance of other international objectives, particularly sustainable development and energy access.

“. . . we believe that these objectives can be achieved simultaneously and not at the expense of one or the other.”

Sporton adds that the association supports international efforts to combat climate change by reducing GGEs through the use and development of low-emissions coal technologies.

“One of the reasons why COP 21 was a success is that an agreement was reached from the ground up, as countries presented rational plans about not only what they wanted to do in terms of climate change but also – and just as important – what they would be able to do through post-2020 climate actions to achieve their NDCs.”

These NDCs, he believes, have ensured that countries have made clear what they can deliver and, for many countries, the contributions have identified the future role of coal in their economies.

Sporton notes that India, “one of the fastest- growing developing economies in the world”, has made it clear that coal will be used to provide energy to meet the country’s electricity needs for many decades to come and that its electricity generation linked to coal is predicted to double in the coming years.

South-East Asian countries, such as Indonesia and Malaysia, intend to significantly increase their use of coal for power generation over the next 10 to 20 years, he adds.

Emissions Reduction Technologies

Sporton points out that countries realise the importance of using high-efficiency, low-emissions technologies in coal-fired power plants to reduce GGEs.

The main high-efficiency, low carbon- emissions technologies that the WCA is promoting are the pulverised coal technologies – the supercritical and ultra- supercritical power generation systems.

Other such technologies still under development include fluidised-bed reactors and carbon capture and storage (CCS) systems, which the WCA also supports.

The world’s first commercial CCS project, at the $1.3-billion, 110 MW Boundary Dam power plant, in Saskatchewan, Canada, has been in operation since October 2014.

“One of the major challenges regarding the development of CCS has been the lack of consistent policies to support the technology worldwide. We have not seen the same support from governments for CCS as there has been for the development of renewable technologies, which has hindered [the solution’s] growth,” Sporton contends.

The cost factor has also contributed to the technology’s lack of uptake, but the operators of the Boundary Dam plant have said that now that they have built a CCS system and know how it operates, they would be able to build another CCS plant 30% cheaper than the existing plant.

“The plant’s operators are also saying that it is generating more electricity . . . than they originally expected, which is another major positive,” Sporton highlights.

He says other power plants that have been earmarked to use CCS technology are scheduled to come on line in the next couple of years in the US. These plants are expected to help demonstrate to other coal-fired plant operators the importance of adopting the technology to cost effectively reduce their GGEs.

Sporton states that most studies on low-emissions technologies indicate that, by 2035, CCS will be in the midrange cost bracket, suggesting that CCS will become increasingly more cost competitive to implement. “This is why it is critically important that more CCS demonstration projects are activated, as this will drive down the cost of the technology in the long term.”

Although he acknowledges that renewable- energy sources will also form an important part of the global energy mix, he asserts that “coal is and will remain an affordable and reliable source of electricity generation, which is what countries need to grow and sustain their economies”.

Uranium Perspective

World Nuclear Association (WNA) director- general Agneta Rising has welcomed the commitments that governments made at COP 21 and says the nuclear industry is ready to help achieve the goals agreed on at the conference.

She adds that the agreement should lead to a more positive outlook for nuclear investments, as nuclear is an important part of the response to climate change worldwide.

WNA senior communications manager Dr Jonathan Cobb adds that, despite advances in energy efficiency, the need to provide electricity for a growing population worldwide means that global demand for electricity is going to increase.

Reducing GGEs is vital to protect the environment and people’s livelihoods, which will be seriously harmed by the “damaging effects” of climate change, he states.

“But this is not the only requirement for our electricity. We need affordable and reliable supplies to fuel our economies and improve our quality of life.”

Cobb believes that, to achieve this, countries need to expand on all forms of low-carbon electricity-producing technologies, including nuclear, contending that achieving a target of 1 000 GW of new nuclear capacity by 2050 would make a major contribution to achieving this.

However, this will require not only a better climate policy worldwide but also greater harmonisation of codes and standards, as well as a safety regime that holds other forms of generation to the same high standards as those expected of the nuclear industry.

There is also a need for a global electricity market that reflects all externalities and system costs, and encourages investment in the kind of energy infrastructure the world requires in the long term, Cobb adds.

Renewables vs Nuclear

On the issue of renewables being favoured over nuclear at COP 21, Cobb points out that the actual agreement reached by delegates made almost no reference to any particular technology.

Aside from the negotiations, more attention was paid to renewables than nuclear, partly because “renewables bring together a range of different technologies, each with its own advocates” and partly because “activist groups that have campaigned on climate change have not traditionally been advocates for nuclear energy”.

However, Cobb says there has been a shift in how nuclear energy was treated at COP meetings over the years, with very visible opposition to nuclear energy 15 years ago.

“That opposition is much smaller now. I think we are seeing a more constructive approach to promoting different solutions, rather than opposition to particular options.”

He further points out that there was, in fact, support for nuclear energy from a number of experts and governments at COP 21. Former National Aeronautics and Space Administration scientist James Hansen headed a group of environmentalists who spoke about the need to use nuclear energy alongside other low-carbon technologies. US Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz also supported nuclear energy and the development of new nuclear technologies.

“There is a growing realisation that the majority of countries that have successfully transitioned to very low-carbon generation mixes, such as France, Sweden and Switzerland, have done so by using nuclear and renewables . . . not by choosing one or the other,” Cobb concludes.

Edited by Creamer Media Reporter

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