Africa’s access to energy and its possible success in the shale gas sector are among the key issues that will be discussed at this year’s Africa Energy Indaba, says World Energy Council (WEC) secretary- general Dr Christoph Frei.

These are some of the issues that stem from key findings in the ‘World Energy Issues Monitor’, released February last year, and various reports released at the 2013 World Energy Congress in Daegu, South Korea.

While the high volatility in energy prices, climate changes, fear of political instability in Asia and North Africa and the 2008 economic recession are global concerns, Africa also faces issues such as access to and the affordability of energy, the possibilities of shale gas and the resilience of the current African energy infrastructure sector and other developments.

These issues, Frei says, will also form part of the discussions during the indaba.

The WEC is one of the strategic partners of the Africa Energy Indaba, held yearly in February in South Africa, and has adopted the indaba as its regional event and platform to discuss energy topics with international and African leaders and businesses.

Frei, key facilitator of the Energy Leader Dialogues at the Africa Energy Indaba, will facilitate the dialogues on shale gas and Africa’s energy access. He notes that these discussions are important, as they will explore the feasibility of South Africa and other African countries replicating the same shale gas successes, including low costs and the speed at which it has been produced, as in North America. “It will also touch on whether it is a viable energy option for South Africa,” he says.

The Eastern Cape Department of Economic Development, Environmental Affairs and Tourism launched a provincial investigation last year into subterranean aquifers and the mapping thereof to determine whether future shale gas exploration rights may affect them. In addition, the African Development Bank launched the ‘Shale gas and its implications for Africa and the African Development Bank’ study in October last year to determine the shale gas resource estimates of other African countries, such as Libya, Algeria, Mauritania and Tunisia, and the benefits of shale gas, should the reserves be developed.

To determine whether the countries will be successful, the WEC has identified ten factors to assess shale gas development opportunities. These factors include subsurface geological complexity and depth; water, equipment, logistical and legal constraints; fiscal incentives and access to cheap capital; technology experience and expertise; managerial experience and innovation culture; and population density.

Frei says that, based on the WEC’s observations, they regard “very few countries”, including South Africa, as being able to implement shale gas extraction with the same speed and similar low-cost expectations as, “many of the factors will not be as favourable as they are in the US”.

“Our conclusion is that it is unlikely that South Africa could extract shale gas at the same speed and low cost as North America. But, for security reasons, there may still be an interest to look into this resource, as it would help diversify South Africa away from its vast coal dependencies.”

The WEC aims to ensure that the outcome of the Africa Energy Indaba dialogue on shale gas will help inform all parties on the realistic prospects for shale gas in South Africa, adds Frei.

According to Frei, 8 of the 20  most rapidly growing countries in the world are sub-Saharan countries, which reflects Africa’s potential as an energy leader, but the slowest progress in energy access is also, however, in sub-Saharan Africa.

The WEC’s scenarios monitor and predict the rate of energy access in Africa for 2030 and 2050 and Frei maintains that the scenarios depend on “whether you [see] the glass half full or half empty”. If regarded positively, energy poverty is likely to decrease, as many African countries will manage to improve their energy access rates. If viewed negatively, with the current policies and measures in place, sub-Saharan Africa will not be fully electrified, even by 2050, unless there is dramatic change of policy and investment, he notes.

Policy, available skills and skills development are some of the greatest challenges Africa faces in terms of energy development, maintains Frei, emphasising the importance of investors. “To attract investment and improve and establish an energy infrastructure, policies should be revised and skills training should take place to deliver the energy future,” he says.

Owing to technological, innovation and policy changes in the energy sector worldwide, Frei says, it is “absolutely critical to come together for dialogue on those developments so that all parties will have gained better information, facts and capacity to make the right decisions in terms of important investment volumes.

“That’s what the indaba is about – to inform and structure the dialogue and to ensure that the decision-maker and government are getting better access to facts, allowing for better decision-making.”