Nuclear energy’s share of the world’s electricity generation mix may have pared down in the past decade, but hopes that this technology will once again account for nearly one-fifth of total supplies from around 2050 remain. And the Brics grouping of Brazil, Russia, China and South Africa is set to provide a significant chunk of the projected new capacity.

Nuclear’s current share of 11% is a far cry from about 17% 12 years ago, with the dilution having resulted from investments in other generation technologies during this period and, to some extent, the shutdown of the Japanese nuclear power sector in the aftermath of the Fukushima mishap of March 2011. But the need to connect scores of households to national grids and cater for future demand from growing populations while confining the globe’s average temperature increase to no more than 2 °C by 2050 has prompted the International Energy Agency to call for nuclear’s share to rise to 18% by the middle of this century.

A tall order? Maybe. An achievable target? Yes – at least according to Agneta Rising, the affable Swedish-born director-general of the World Nuclear Association. Planned nuclear build programmes in the Brics bloc will go a long way towards realising the 18%-nuclear-by-2050 goal should they come to fruition.

According to Djurica Tankosic, head of the nuclear division at global consultancy WorleyParsons, nuclear power plants (NPPs) in Brics countries currently account for 16% of the world’s nuclear generation capacity. He told an international nuclear energy conference in Moscow last month that ten of the NPPs are in Russia, the most nuclear dependent Brics member country. The ten NPPs, comprising 34 units, generate 18.5% of the country’s electricity.

The 26 operational units in China account for 2.4% of the Asian giant’s electricity supply, while India’s 21 units account for 3.4%. South Africa and Brazil have two units each, the output of which is equivalent to 5% and 2.8% respectively of the installed generation capacity.

All of the Brics countries except South Africa are installing additional nuclear generation capacity. The most extensive build programme, China’s, entails the construction of 24 units. Russia is building nine units, India six and Brazil one.

The 40 units under construction in the Brics bloc equate to about 60% of the 67 units being built across the globe.

It emerged at the Moscow conference, which was hosted by Russian State-owned nuclear energy corporation Rosatom, that the number of units under construction in Brics countries could more than treble in the next few years should plans for an additional 107 units be approved. There are also projects in the ‘proposed’ category, entailing the construction of 145 units.

The units falling under the planned/proposed category include eight mulled by South Africa, the first of which is projected to start feeding electricity into the country’s under-pressure grid by 2023. According to South African Nuclear Energy Corporation CEO Phumzile Tselane, companies from Russia, China, France, South Korea and the US have already participated in a “vendor parade” and a strategic equity partner for the nuclear build programme should be selected by year-end.

The envisaged massive nuclear capacity expansion push in the Brics bloc will be driven by substantial economic growth – the combined gross domestic product of the five countries is projected to grow at an average rate of about 8% in 15 years. As the Brics countries are, on average, almost three times more energy intensive than Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development countries, it is imperative that they invest in their future energy security. And, as Rising emphasised in Moscow, nuclear has to feature strongly in the electricity generation mix of the future, given environmental concerns.

Whether finance would be available for the construction of NPPs in Brics countries kept popping up at the Moscow jamboree, which was attended by more than 1 600 delegates from 48 countries.

But Tankosic was upbeat, stating that NPP developers could tap into not only traditional financiers but also two potential sources of funds: the New Development Bank (NDB) and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB).

Formally known as the Brics Bank, the NDB was established in July 2014 with an initial capital base of $100-billion to finance infrastructure projects in Brics and other developing countries. Established by China in October 2014, the AIIB also has an initial capital base of $100-billion for the financing of infrastructure and energy projects in Asian countries.

Tankosic said Brics countries’ nuclear programmes would also be boosted by a planned ‘energy association’, which would include a fuel reserve bank and an energy policy institute.

Rosatom international business director Nikolay Drozdov said the State-owned group could implement NPP projects on a ‘build, own, operate’ basis should it be selected as a partner and this model be required. Further, it could help secure government-to-government or concessionary Russian bank loans for developers.

Rosatom, which had a foreign order book of $101-billion at the end of 2014, has had significant nuclear-sector cooperation with fellow Brics countries, having built two units in China and one in India, all of which are operational. It is building two more units in China and three in India and could be retained for the two additional units that each of the Asian neighbours is planning.
Rosatom is also vying for the construction of some or all of the eight units the South African government is mulling and has signed a “broad agreement” with Brazil for its new nuclear build programme.