Sep 14, 2012
Jobs for Africa?Back
Agriculture|Construction|Africa|Consulting|Education|McKinsey & Company|Africa|Europe|Brazil|South Korea|Thailand|United States|McKinsey Global Institute|Manufacturing|Products|Services|Transport|Infrastructure
© Reuse this
To achieve such an acceleration, though, countries would need to address some of the current barriers to job creation and would do well to follow the example of countries such as Thailand, South Korea and Brazil, which created stable jobs at double and triple Africa’s current rate when their economies were at similar levels of development.
The McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), which nailed its Afro-optimist colours to the mast in 2010 with the release of ‘Lions on the move: The progress and potential of African economies’, says that, given prevailing trends, the continent should be able to generate 54-million stable jobs by 2020.
But, in the study, entitled ‘Africa at work: Job creation and inclusive growth’, the MGI argues that growth in jobs could be more than 50% faster in agriculture, manufacturing, and retail and hospitality if policymakers removed key obstacles to private-sector growth.
By 2020, Africa’s labour force should rise to more than 500-million, with 122-million of its citizens likely to enter the labour market over the coming eight years. The African labour force will also be more educated by that date, with estimates showing that 48% of African workers will have secondary or tertiary education, up from 40% currently.
Therefore, the report asserts that Africa could reap a demographic dividend, courtesy of its young and rapidly growing workforce and its declining dependence ratio. By 2020, the number of children and retired people that each worker supports will fall from the highest in the world today to a level on a par with the US and Europe by 2035.
However, while the continent’s official unemployment rate is 9%, only 28% of Africa’s labour force is in wage-paying jobs.
The MGI argues that agriculture, which is set to create eight-million stable jobs at current trends, could add six-million more by 2020 if the continent accelerates the development of this sector. “This upside would come from two sources in particular: expanding large-scale commercial farming on uncultivated land, and shifting from low-value grain production to more labour-intensive and higher-value-added horticultural and biofuel crops.”
In manufacturing, 15-million jobs could be created instead of the current forecast of seven-million, if countries tap into their comparative advantages. For instance, countries with large agriculture sectors could develop downstream agroprocessing industries, such as food and beverage manufacturing, textiles, leather goods and wood products. “To realise these opportunities, however, African countries need to address the high costs of transportation, inputs, duties and bureaucracy”.
In retail and hospitality, which is on track to add nine-million jobs by 2020, a further five-million could be generated if countries removed hurdles to the formalisation and modernisation of the sector. “Hospitality and tourism are already growing strongly, but there is potential to accelerate growth by addressing inadequate and costly air travel and visa requirements, poor surface transportation, and problems related to land use and development rights.
Outside these sectors, the MGI expects that there could also be employment growth in construction, transport and communication, and financial services, while government and the social sectors will also remain strong con- tributors.
Issues identified as key constraints to private- sector growth include macroeconomic con- ditions, the potential for political instability and the continent’s infrastructure shortcomings.
The study urges Africa’s policymakers to adopt explicit strategies aimed at encouraging growth in labour-intensive sectors, which could be executed in conjunction with the private sector.
Edited by: Creamer Media Reporter© Reuse this Comment Guidelines (150 word limit)
Other Editorial Insight News
Recent Research Reports
Liquid Fuels 2014 - A review of South Africa's Liquid Fuels sector (PDF Report)
Creamer Media’s Liquid Fuels 2014 Report examines these issues, focusing on the business environment, oil and gas exploration, the country’s feedstock supplies, the development of South Africa’s biofuels industry, fuel pricing, competition in the sector, the...
Water 2014: A review of South Africa's water sector (PDF Report)
Creamer Media’s Water 2014 report considers the aforementioned issues, not only in the South African context, but also in the African and global context, and examines the issues of water and sanitation, water quality and the demand for water, among others.
Defence 2014: A review of South Africa's defence industry (PDF Report)
Creamer Media’s Defence 2014 report examines South Africa’s defence industry, with particular focus on the key participants in the sector, the innovations that have come out of the sector, local and export demand, South Africa’s controversial multibillion-rand...
Road and Rail 2014: A review of South Africa's road and rail infrastructure (PDF report)
Creamer Media’s Road and Rail 2014 report examines South Africa’s road and rail transport system, with particular focus on the size and state of the country’s road and rail network, the funding and maintenance of these respective networks, and the push to move road...
Real Economy Year Book 2014 (PDF Report)
This edition drills down into the performance and outlook for a variety of sectors, including automotive, construction, electricity, transport, steel, water, coal, gold, iron-ore and platinum.
Real Economy Insight: Automotive 2014 (PDF Report)
This four-page brief covers key developments in the automotive industry over the past 12 months, including an overview of South Africa’s automotive market, trade figures, production and the policies influencing the sector.
This Week's Magazine
Three-dimensional (3D) printers being sold in South Africa by electronics distributor Rectron currently print in two types of plastic, but have a clear upgrade path over the next five years to eventually print in wood, ceramics and metal-alloy materials, says Rectron...
The world’s two dominant commercial aircraft manufacturers, Airbus of Europe and Boeing of the US, both recently announced that they had made record aircraft deliveries in 2014. Boeing set a global record for the industry with 723 commercial aircraft delivered, while...
The Western Cape is shifting further into the renewable-energy space with the official opening of a factory specialising in solar inverters, a key component of solar photovoltaic (PV) plants. The investment in the manufacturing facility in Cape Town aims to boost the...
Business Leadership South Africa (BLSA) last month welcomed Cabinet’s establishment of a technical team war room to undertake various interventions to improve electricity supply security over the short- and medium-term, but added that the private sector also had a...
Despite a rapid rise in mobile connections and the economic and social benefits of such connectivity, more than half of the world ended 2014 unconnected. For this reason, industry commentators believe the biggest impact of mobile technology is still to come –...