http://www.engineeringnews.co.za
  SEARCH
Login
R/€ = 14.01Change: 0.11
R/$ = 11.04Change: 0.00
Au 1246.50 $/ozChange: -5.52
Pt 1271.00 $/ozChange: -13.00
 
 
Note: Search is limited to the most recent 250 articles. Set date range to access earlier articles.
Where? With... When?








Start
 
End
 
 
And must exclude these words...
Close Main Search
Close Main Login
My Profile News Alerts Newsletters Logout Close Main Profile
 
Agriculture   Automotive   Chemicals   Competition Policy   Construction   Defence   Economy   Electricity   Energy   Environment   ICT   Metals   Mining   Science and Technology   Services   Trade   Transport & Logistics   Water  
What's On Press Office Tenders Suppliers Directory Research Jobs Announcements Contact Us
 
 
 
RSS Feed
Article   Comments   Other News   Research   Magazine  
 
 
Sep 14, 2012

Marikana tragedy may well be turning point in battle for ANC presidency

Back
Political analyst Aubrey Matshiqi discusses the possible impact the Marikana tragedy could have on the ANC leadership battle. Camera: Nicholas Boyd. Editing: Darlene Creamer. Recorded: 12/09/2012
Mangaung|Polokwane|Jacob Zuma|Julius Malema|Thabo Mbeki|Fracturing
||
mangaung-city|polokwane|jacob-zuma|julius-malema|thabo-mbeki|fracturing
© Reuse this



Is the Marikana tragedy a turning point in the battle for the presidency of the African National Congress (ANC)? Specifically, is the tragedy a turning point for President Jacob Zuma? If it is, will former ANC Youth League president Julius Malema benefit the most from the tragic death of 44 people in Marikana?

What is interesting about these questions is the fact that they are all based on the assumption that Malema is going to be a critical player in the battle for Mangaung. In fact, these questions are also based on another assumption – that Malema is going to determine the outcome of the leadership battle between Zuma and whoever will be nominated by ANC structures to run against him.

While uncertainty remains the only certainty about Mangaung, there is no doubt that the decision by the ANC to expel Malema has not translated into an effective containment strategy. In fact, the ANC may be regretting the decision not to accept an offer Malema made to the ruling party a few months into his disciplinary hearing. This, I believe, is an offer he made to the disciplinary committee of the ANC because he was desperate to hold on to his membership of the ruling party. The last thing he wanted was to be expelled from the ANC – hence, the offer he made to relinquish all his leadership positions in the ANC and not to avail himself for any leadership position for a few years.

With the benefit of hindsight, and assuming that Malema would have kept his end of the bargain, accepting his offer would have constituted a better strategy of containment than the decision to expel him. As things stand now, Malema has become the Robin Hood of disgruntled miners at Marikana and beyond. The tombstones of the victims of the Marikana tragedy may become a solid foundation for his campaign against the President. And the fact that Malema is not a presidential candidate means that he has a lot less to lose than Zuma. It also means that the opponents of the President may end up doing less work and risking less than the President in their anti-Zuma campaigns, with Malema doing most of the damage to Zuma and his supporters.

But what Malema and other opponents of the President must never forget is the fact that, in Zuma, they are dealing with a wily fox and astute politician who has an intelligence background. Given this background, they must not make the mistake of thinking that State intelligence structures are his main source of intel- ligence about the strategies of his political opponents and enemies. My own assumption is that the intelligence and strategic capa- city of the President is located in a multi- plicity of State and non-State centres. In short, Malema must understand – and he probably does understand this – that he has chosen to do battle with another master of the disguised ‘klap’. The previous one was former President Thabo Mbeki. In the battle against Mbeki, Malema found himself on the winning side.

The problem, however, is that the side which won the battle of Polokwane has since fractured into several factions. This fracturing can work either to the advantage or disadvantage of the President. The disadvan- tage Zuma faces is the opposition of the different factions to the idea of giving him a second presi- dential term. The advantage is that they are still united behind a phantom candidate and may, therefore, spend too much time haggling over positions other than the presidency of the ANC.

Another problem is that Malema may turn out to be a figure that divides them more than they may have realised initially. In other words, their unity in opposition to the President should not be confused with unity over the role Malema should play in the campaign against Zuma. Some people in the ANC hate Zuma less than they hate Malema.

This brings me to three questions that Malema must address: First, are those who are opposed to Zuma going to gain more by aligning themselves with, or distancing themselves, from him? Second, given a choice between the reinstatement of Malema and a second term for Zuma, what is it that will be deemed more damag- ing by the opponents of the President? Third, can attempts at using the Marikana tragedy to undermine Zuma, on their own, tip the balance of support to the disad- vantage of the President?

At the end of the day, Malema must be alive to the possibility of a disjuncture between the level of support he can mobilise against Zuma outside the ANC and that which he can garner within the rank and file of the ANC. In the end, it is support inside the ANC, not in Marikana, that will matter the most.

Edited by: Martin Zhuwakinyu
© Reuse this Comment Guidelines (150 word limit)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Other Aubrey Matshiqi News
Article contains comments
Where do the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) come from, and where are they going? In the lead-up to the 1949 national conference of the African National Congress (ANC), the Youth League tried to interest the then president of the ANC Dr AB Xuma in the idea of...
Article contains comments
More
 
 
Latest News
Updated 56 minutes ago Despite several real estate investment trusts (REITs) extolling the virtues of portfolio diversification, Resolution Capital Australia MD Andrew Parsons has cautioned against this strategy, advising trusts to rather simplify and specialise their asset portfolio....
Updated 2 hours 20 minutes ago Global crude steel output in September, at 134.4-million tonnes, was marginally lower than the 134.5-million tonnes produced in September 2013. According to the World Steel Association (worldsteel), China produced 67.5-million tonnes of crude steel in September,...
Updated 5 hours ago Stand a chance to win a CAT Phone.  Subscribe to Engineering News & Mining Weekly at a 30% discounted rate. The weekly print magazines will be posted to your preferred postal address. Also gain online access to: Project Browser - providing an overview of latest...
More
 
 
Recent Research Reports
Defence 2014: A review of South Africa's defence industry (PDF Report)
Creamer Media’s Defence 2014 report examines South Africa’s defence industry, with particular focus on the key participants in the sector, the innovations that have come out of the sector, local and export demand, South Africa’s controversial multibillion-rand...
Road and Rail 2014: A review of South Africa's road and rail infrastructure (PDF report)
Creamer Media’s Road and Rail 2014 report examines South Africa’s road and rail transport system, with particular focus on the size and state of the country’s road and rail network, the funding and maintenance of these respective networks, and the push to move road...
Real Economy Year Book 2014 (PDF Report)
This edition drills down into the performance and outlook for a variety of sectors, including automotive, construction, electricity, transport, steel, water, coal, gold, iron-ore and platinum.
Real Economy Insight: Automotive 2014 (PDF Report)
This four-page brief covers key developments in the automotive industry over the past 12 months, including an overview of South Africa’s automotive market, trade figures, production and the policies influencing the sector.
Real Economy Insight: Construction 2014 (PDF Report)
This five-page brief covers key developments in the construction industry over the past 12 months. It provides an overview of the sector and includes details of employment in the sector, infrastructure and municipal spending, as well as insight into companies’...
Real Economy Insight: Electricity 2014 (PDF Report)
This five-page brief covers key developments in the electricity industry over the past 12 months, including details of State-owned power utility Eskom’s generation activities, funding and tariffs, independent power producers and prospects for the sector.
 
 
 
 
 
This Week's Magazine
The broad-based black economic-empowerment (BBBEE) alignment process in the con-struction sector has begun, dur-ing which the sector codes of the Construction Sector Charter Council (CSCC) will be aligned with the revised Codes of Good Practice (CoGP), which come...
It is second time lucky for Toby Venter. Ten years ago he negotiated to buy the Kyalami racetrack, but “the deal did not materialise”.
Environmental solutions company I-Cat started construction work on its R22-million, 1 949 m2 environmentally sustainable office and warehouse facility, commissioned by I-CAT Environmental Solutions, at a launch event in October. The new sustainable I-CAT campus,...
IAN EVANS AirWatch file synchronisation and sharing system was initially designed for a large airline company
Effective file synchronisation and sharing across an organisation’s structures can provide the basis for robust mobile-device and document management while maintaining proper backup, version control and content distribution. These are the lessons learned by complex...
Hotel group Carlson Rezidor currently holds the largest hotel pipeline in Africa with 30 hotels and 6 300 rooms under development. The hotel group develops and operates Radisson Blu in the upper upscale segment and Park Inn by Radisson in the mid-market segment. With...
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Alert Close
Embed Code Close
content
Research Reports Close
Research Reports are a product of the
Research Channel Africa. Reports can be bought individually or you can gain full access to all reports as part of a Research Channel Africa subscription.
Find Out More Buy Report
 
 
Close
Engineering News
Completely Re-Engineered
Experience it now. Click here
*website to launch in a few weeks