This year, as well as 2016, present significantly difficult seasons for South Africa, as expected poor summer crops will impact negatively on the agriculture sector, with basic food products forecast to be “very expensive” for consumers.

South Africa’s maize crop will be 32% lower than last year owing to the severe drought experienced during January and February, which has also impacted negatively on the estimates for sunflower, the National Crop Estimates Committee’s first summer crop estimate for the 2015/16 season has shown.

Maize was estimated at 9.665-million tons for the current season, with white maize expected to be 4.696-million tons and yellow maize 4.969-million tons, compared with the previous season’s maize crop of 14.25-million tons.

The average yield during the previous season was 5.3 t/ha with this season’s average estimated at 3.63 t/ha.

The expected crop for sunflower was now 574 300 t, 31% lower than last year.

“We also expected a new record soya bean crop this year, but the drought caused it to be 1% lower than last year at 938 350 t,” Grain SA said in a statement on Thursday.

The decrease in maize production would now result in South Africa needing to import about 1.65-million tons of yellow maize, putting “tremendous pressure” on the infrastructure of South Africa.

Grain SA advised that if an even lower harvest was realised, it would have “catastrophic consequences”, adding that the supply and demand of white maize for the coming season was “extremely tight”.

“White maize prices increased to import parity price levels and declined the past week owing to profit taking, deliveries of maize and improved rainfall forecasts. [However], it is expected that prices will recover to the earlier import parity price levels for the rest of the marketing year,” the organisation noted.

Grain SA CEO Jannie de Villiers emphasised that the organisation had full confidence in the scientific methodology applied by the Crop Estimates Committee to estimate the size of the harvest.

But he added that it remained “an estimate at best”.

“The weather can still have an impact on the coming harvest and uncertainty prevails, especially with regard to a further lower yield. [But], one thing is sure – we are not going to have an exportable surplus,” De Villiers added.

As the season progressed, additional rainfall would have a less positive impact on the crop size and if no or little rain was received, the situation could worsen further, Grain SA explained.