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How the (newly) mighty are (apparently) fallen

30th May 2014

By: Keith Campbell

Creamer Media Senior Deputy Editor

  

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Barely had the announcement been made that Nigeria had leapfrogged over South Africa to become, by a substantial margin, the biggest economy in Africa than the West African country was subjected to the great humiliation and embarrassment of having between 200 and 300 schoolgirls abducted (enslaved?) from a boarding school in Chibok, in Borno State, by the terrorist group Boko Haram on April 14. Although about 53 managed to escape, 200 or more remain captive.

Although this was not the first time Boko Haram had attacked schools, or abducted girls (and murdered boys), the scale of this operation was unprecedented. It was reported by the international media, although the story did not initially make a big impact (perhaps because of a lot of confusion during the early days over how many girls had been taken and how many had since escaped). However, we now know that Nigeria did receive offers of help from friendly countries, offers which were then declined. The subsequent inability of the Nigerian authorities to find and rescue any of the girls led to rising anger and frustration in the country and the launch of a Twitter campaign by Nigerians that rapidly went worldwide. There were also street protests. As a result, the Nigerian government finally accepted foreign offers of help.

Boko Haram was founded in 2002 and started violence in 2009. Its growing activities led to a state of emergency being declared in May 2013 in the states of Borno, Yobe and Adamawa, where the group is strongest. In the 12 months before the declaration of the state of emergency, 741 civilians were killed in these three states. In the 12 months after, the civilian death toll jumped dramatically to 2 265. Not all of these were killed by Boko Haram. Human rights groups have blamed the Nigerian military for hundreds of civilian deaths.

Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan has been heavily criticised for his government’s performance in this crisis. Some of this criticism is entirely fair and very justified. But some is not. Although Nigeria was ruled for many years by military regimes, reaching their nadir under the brutal and incredibly avaricious and corrupt General Sani Abacha (who is believed to have stolen $3-billion during the five years of his rule, 1993 to 1998, ended by his death), these actually neglected the armed forces (particularly the air force and the navy). Such neglect was in part intended as a guard against further military coups. The result is that the armed forces do not have the training and equipment they need – most Nigerian soldiers operating against Boko Haram have to use pick-up trucks to get around! While some of these carry machine guns, they are all totally unprotected and thus very vulnerable to ambush, mines or improvised explosive devices.

President Jonathan has, in fact, been urgently rebuilding the capabilities of the armed forces. Mine-protected vehicles, for example, are being frantically acquired from multiple sources (including South Africa). He has especially focused on the Nigerian Navy (to counter piracy) and the Nigerian Air Force (essential to combat both Boko Haram and piracy).

The Nigerian Air Force is short of everything. At the beginning of this year, it was believed to have operational 12 Chinese F-7 supersonic fighters, eight French Alpha Jet armed jet trainers (used, in fact, as fighter-bombers), three C-130H Hercules transports from the US (with a fourth being refurbished), two Italian G222 tactical transports, six German Do 228 and eleven Do 128 light transports, two European ATR 42 maritime surveillance aircraft and just 31 helicopters (eight gunships, ten transports and 13 for light utility and observation). Just 75 in all (excluding training aircraft). The only proper reconnaissance aircraft are the ATR 42s, which are optimised for over-sea operation and are needed for antipiracy operations. So most ‘reconnaissance’ being carried out by the Nigerian Air Force against Boko Haram is entirely visual – the ‘Mark 1 eyeball’ during daylight. (It seems that the eight Mi-24 helicopter gunships are the only platforms that currently are fitted with infrared systems, capable of functioning at night).

This makes the provision of manned surveillance aircraft by the UK and US to assist Nigeria so important. These carry sensors far more sophisticated and capable than those of Nigeria. But it would have been better if Nigeria had agreed to their deployment earlier. The mission is much more difficult now.

In May, Jonathan approved an additional appropriation of $1-billion to procure equipment for the armed forces. Importantly, his administration is also stressing training and the restoration and strengthening of local defence infrastructure and maintenance, repair and overhaul capabilities as well as the development of a local defence industry. This is also creating opportunities for the South African defence industry. For example, DCD Protected Mobility has been talking to Nigerian group Mekahog to set up a plant for the South African company’s Springbuck mine-protected armoured personnel carrier. Such a project would start by providing maintenance and repair services, before moving on to local assembly and, finally, to local manufacture. (To date, 52 Springbucks have been ordered by the Nigerian Police, of which at least 44 have been delivered.)

The key point to remember, however, is that this crisis is a short-term event. Nigeria has survived much greater crises and much greater threats than Boko Haram. When it is all over, Nigeria will still be the largest economy in Africa, and its military will have been strengthened.

It is noteworthy that, while there have been protests in South Africa against Boko Haram led by senior members of the ruling African National Congress, including government Ministers, South Africa has offered no help at all. There is a good reason for this: South Africa can’t help. It doesn’t have the appropriate manned or unmanned air surveillance platforms needed for such an operation. It used to, but they were disposed of years ago, without replacement.

Edited by Martin Zhuwakinyu
Creamer Media Senior Deputy Editor

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