Given the attention, disproportionate or not, being given to nuclear energy in South Africa, it was interesting to see what the International Energy Agency (IEA) had to say about the future of technology in its World Energy Outlook 2014 (WEO-2014), released earlier this month.

The IEA’s base case is for global nuclear power capacity to increase by almost 60% by 2040, from 392 GW in 2013 to over 620 GW.

However, the technology’s share of global electricity generation, which peaked almost two decades ago, is expected to rise by just one percentage point to 12%.

By contrast, strong growth is forecast for renewable energy, which is expected to raise the share of renewables in global power generation to one-third by 2040.

In fact, the IEA says there is no sign of a ‘nuclear renaissance’ despite the fact that the technology offers one of the few options available at scale to reduce carbon dioxide emissions while providing or displacing other forms of baseload generation.

The IEA says nuclear’s relatively modest growth “reflects the challenges facing all types of new thermal generation capacity in competitive power markets and the specific suite of other economic, technical and political challenges that nuclear power has to overcome”.

Growth of nuclear is likely to be concentrated in markets where electricity is supplied at regulated prices, utilities have State backing or governments act to facilitate private investment.

“Of the growth in nuclear generation to 2040, China accounts for 45%, while India, Korea and Russia collectively make up a further 30%. Generation increases by 16% in the US, rebounds in Japan (although not to the levels prior to the accident at Fukushima Dai-ichi) and falls by 10% in the European Union.”

The IEA also warns that almost 200 of the world’s 434 operational reactors are set to be retired in the period to 2040. “The challenge to replace the shortfall in generation is especially acute in Europe,” the WEO-2014 states.

Nevertheless, the IEA’s central scenario is for the number of economies operating reactors to rise from 31 to 36 as newcomers outnumber those that phase out nuclear power.

Given this territorial expansion, the authors’ stress that public concerns about nuclear power must, therefore, be heard and addressed.

“Safety is the dominant concern, particularly in relation to operating reactors, managing radioactive waste and preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons. Confidence in the competence and independence of regulatory oversight is essential, especially as nuclear power spreads,” the WEO-2014 asserts.

It also highlights that the cumulative total spent nuclear fuel will double to more than 700 000 t by 2040, and that no country has yet opened a permanent disposal facility to isolate the most long-lived and highly radio- active waste produced by commercial reactors. “All countries that have ever produced radio- active waste should have an obligation to develop a solution for permanent disposal.”