Now for more Gautrains – or, at least, rail services operating at the same level as the R25,5-billion rapid rail link.

“The Gautrain has set a new bar for us to reach. It’s all new-generation technology,” says Deputy Transport Minister Jeremy Cronin.

“The Gautrain has opened the doors to funding for public transport,” he adds. “The big spending we have seen on public transport was pioneered here.”

Included in this budget are the bus rapid transit systems being rolled out in Johannesburg and Cape Town, increased spending at commuter rail specialist Metrorail, and upgrading the service at Autopax with a fleet of new buses.

The first phase of the Gautrain, inclusive of an auxiliary bus service, this month started operating between OR Tambo International Airport and Sandton, stopping at the Rhodesfield and Marlboro stations along the way.

As the project managed to clear the hurdles to construction, it was only natural that the idea of building an expensive premier rail service would raise some hackles, particularly among those keen that the country focus its public-transport efforts on the creation of affordable, high-volume passenger transport solutions.

Even when eventually supported by the purse carriers, some officials still breathed laboriously at the thought of paying so much for a project which could be labelled as benefiting the more well heeled – even if the argument was that reducing congestion on the Johannesburg–Pretoria corridor would require a project that reduced the amount of cars on the roads and, therefore, would need to target car owners who are, by implication, middle-class.

Cronin himself was often vocal in his criticism of the ‘for the rich’ project – especially during his tenure as the chairperson of Parliament’s portfolio committee on transport. He accused the project of neither aiding social integration or allowing for sufficient integration with existing public transport.

Even now, looking back, he remains firm on this, despite singing the praises of the rail link.

“I’m excited, like everybody else. And proud. The engineering on this project is simply wonderful.

“Some say people will resent the modernity of the Gautrain compared with the services they have to use, but I don’t think so. What it has done is set a new bar for public transport.

“It is a wonderful project which shows that public transport is not only for the poor, but for all South Africans thoroughly sick of sitting in congestion.”

However, he adds that he “won’t be a hypocrite”.

“If we could start again, I’d still favour a route that was more socially transformational – running through Tembisa, for example.”

The current route will join Pretoria, Midrand, Sandton, Johannesburg and OR Tambo International Airport by 2011.

Now, with the ribbon cut on the first phase of the gold and blue train, Cronin has a new focus – more of the same for everyone.

“The Gautrain has helped on some fronts. Other cities came to [government] and said, if we are spending R25,5-billion on the Gautrain, why can’t we spend it in their cities too? So we managed to convince Treasury to spend some serious money on public transport.”

Cronin said government is now also, finally, talking about a major recapitalisation of the lumbering Metrorail system.

“Refurbishing coaches is now costing as much as it would to buy new rolling stock.”

Metrorail’s parent, the Passenger Rail Agency of South Africa (Prasa), warned a long time ago it would need to acquire new rolling stock soon, otherwise the commuter rail system would grind to a halt.

Prasa CEO Tshepo Lucky Montana says he wants 6 800 new coaches for Metrorail over the next seven years to ten years, and 2 000 new units for Shosholoza Meyl, Prasa’s long-distance passenger rail carrier.

“The decision to go ahead now rests with government,” he comments.

In 2009, it was estimated that this recapital- isation programme would cost more than R80-billion.

“We have missed out on two technological renaissances in rail. We have to catch up in terms of services, signalling and so forth,” says Cronin, referring to Metrorail. “We have caught up with the [Gautrain] now.”

More Rail Projects?
Apart from possible extensions to the Gautrain system, such as to the east of Pretoria, and upgrading the Metrorail system, government says it is now also considering building several other passenger rail projects – and why not cash in on the big sum of money already spent on swaying the public opinion on rail transport?

One such project is a Durban–Johannesburg high-speed mixed passenger-and-cargo rail link, with the prefeasibility study completed.

Bidders have already also been shortlisted for a Cape Town-airport-to-central-business- district rail link, with a King Shaka airport link, in KwaZulu-Natal, under serious discussion.

Former Transport Minister and current Justice Minister Jeff Radebe also noted at the official launch of the Gautrain, on June 5, that the expertise gained on the rapid rail project would be “absorbed” in a new, similar rail project.

“We are in advanced discussions for a new Moloto rail link to be built on the same specifications and the same platform as the Gautrain.”

If it receives the go-ahead, the project will see the construction of a R9,3-billion, 140-km commuter rail line along the increasingly busy Moloto corridor between Pretoria and Siyabuswa, in Mpumalanga.

In another development, State-owned freight logistics group Transnet has also called on private companies to register their interest in the operation of rail services on about 7 300 route kilometres of branch lines in South Africa, about 4 000 km of which are currently operational.

The request for registration of interest is the first stage in a three-stage concession process, and the precursor to the long-awaited introduction of private-sector participation in the railways business – excluding the Gautrain – albeit on currently underused infrastructure.

The branch-line concessioning process will be pursued in close collaboration with government, and will be followed by a call for expressions of interest, and then a formal request for proposals, during the course of the second half of the year.

This concession model will eventually involve a process through which private entities will be invited to bid for the right to operate a rail service on a specified branch line or cluster of branch lines.

Concessionaires will be required to make the necessary capital investments, maintain the assets to agreed standards throughout the concession period and operate railway services, which may involve freight, or passenger services, or a combination of the two.

Until any of these projects happen, though, the Gautrain rapid rail link remains the newest thing in rail the country has seen in decades.

Gautrain’s Second Phase
What is the status of the project which is South Africa’s biggest public–private partnership to date, and the result of the biggest environmental-impact assessment ever seen in the country as it cuts a swathe through 80 km of some of the most expensive land in the country?

With the first phase operational, the completion of the second phase – perhaps, the most financially lucrative phase and most certainly the highest passenger-volume line – looms.

The link between Johannesburg and Pretoria has to be completed by March 27, next year.

However, construction work on this phase is currently a month behind schedule, says Gautrain Management Agency CEO Jack van der Merwe.

He says the reason for this is that the dolomite problem – dolomite causes sinkholes – around Centurion and Pretoria has been more extensive than what the Bombela consortium, responsible for building and operating the Gautrain, anticipated.

“They were slow and careful in getting through this area, but they are through it now. We are looking at ways to accelerate construction to reach the March target date,” notes Van der Merwe.

He adds that phase two will have to face the added complexity of having to be completed within an operating rail system, unlike phase one, which was wrapped up in a closed environment.

The Money Trail
With the fare box open at the first phase Gautrain stations, how will ticket income be distributed?

Van der Merwe says all income until the completion of phase two will go to Bombela. Thereafter, a so-called ridership model kicks in.

This model will see the Gauteng government forced to chip in if the ridership does not reach 120 000 passenger trips a day.

“It’s a complex model – we count feet and income – so, if advertising comes into play it can also influence this model,” explains Van der Merwe.

However, should the ridership exceed 120 000 passenger trips, then the profit will be shared 50:50 between the Gauteng government and Bombela.

Van der Merwe says the success of the system will depend on many factors.

One such interesting factor is ensuring the human touch.

“We had a senior manager from a relatively new rail system in Seoul, South Korea, here, and he said the operational readiness of a system starts with a human interface – and not machines. So, we will have between 60 and 100 ushers at the stations to help people figure out the system,” says Van der Merwe.

He adds that the most difficult aspect will not be building the Gautrain, but operating it.

“You have to constantly provide a train every 12 minutes on time every day for 15 years (Bombela’s concession period), otherwise people will not trust the system – this will be the determining factor.”

Van der Merwe expects any future phases of the Gautrain to be much easier and cheaper to build than these first ones.

“If you have such a massive swing in transport as we plan here, then you have to price in a greenfield risk. However, once the modal shift – car to train – has happened, when the technology is well established, when people know the Gautrain, then that risk has passed.”

Van der Merwe says he believes the Gautrain project has the four main ingredients necessary to be successful.

“You need a political champion, it must be viable and robust technology, the State must have the budget, and you have to be able to sell the concept to the community.

“We believe we have all of these ingredients.”

Another factor that may see Gautrain ticket queues grow is the fact that almost all Gauteng’s freeways will become toll roads in April 2011 – roughly at the same time the Gautrain Johannesburg–Pretoria service starts.

Neither Van der Merwe nor the South African National Roads Agency admits to planning complicity.

The Gautrain is priced to be cheaper than operating a car.

This rather big-stick approach may result in using the Gautrain becoming a lucrative carrot – and, in the end, the fare box will speak the loudest. Politicians and engineers may talk policy and punt projects, but often the success of a big infrastructure project such as this hinges on a pure and simple vote by wallet.

Only time will tell whether the Gautrain makes economic sense to car owners, both in terms of time and money, and, by implication, if rail is a viable, profitable public transport solution for South Africa.