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Glencore shares leap as liquidity lifts, operations hum, debt falls

Ivan Glasenberg, backgrounded by the South African school Glencore funded.

Ivan Glasenberg, backgrounded by the South African school Glencore funded.

Photo by Duane Daws

4th November 2015

By: Martin Creamer

Creamer Media Editor

  

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JOHANNESBURG (miningweekly.com) – Diversified mining and marketing major Glencore, which has been working hard to reduce debt in response to investor concerns, on Wednesday won market plaudits for its rising liquidity level, debt-cutting streaming transactions and, in the words of one analyst, "humming" operations.

As a consequence the share price of the London-, Hong Kong- and Johannesburg-listed company leapt 8.46% to R27.17 a share on the JSE by lunch.

Wednesday’s corporate update and third quarter production report will now be followed by another investor update on December 10 when Glencore will guide further on expected 2016-to-2018 industrial production, capital expenditure and cost structure.

“Net debt should fall rapidly,” Credit Suisse equity research commented.

The company, headed by CEO Ivan Glasenberg, is on the verge of wiping more debt off the board through two rapid-succession streaming transactions.

The first, already concluded with Silver Wheaten (see also separate report), will result in $900-million of debt being wiped off later this month and the second streaming deal will be announced before year-end.

These come on top of the $2.5-billion equity raising and the $2.4-billion dividend suspension saving earlier this year.

Current available liquidity rose to $13.8-billion in September, up from $10.5-billion in June, with this year’s liquidity figure and net funding target ahead of analyst expectations.

“This was as good a denouement as one could realistically expect,” Barclays Capital commented.

The $25-billion net debt by the end of 2015 is $2-billion lower than the previous target, bolstered by a $2-billion bond buy-back and the selling of assets.

A process has also begun for the sell-off of a minority stake in the agricultural division as well as across the rest of the portfolio.

“A sizeable transaction on the agricultural business could make a material difference and we await developments on this in particular,” Investec Securities commented.

The shutdown and restart plans for the Katanga and Mopani copper mines in Zambia have been completed as part of cutting mined copper production by 455 000 t by the end of 2017.

Glencore said in a media release to Creamer Media’s Mining Weekly Online that measures taken would reduce 2015 full-year mined zinc and lead production by 150 000 t.

Own-sourced copper production was down 2% to 1 127 500 t in the nine months to September 30, with own-sourced zinc production up 13% to 1 127 100 t.

Own-sourced nickel production fell 8% to 68 700 t, reflecting the planned extended shutdown at the Sudbury smelter in Canada, and attributable ferrochrome production rose 14% to 1 072 000 t, with the Lion Two smelter in South Africa now fully ramped up.

Own-sourced coal production fell 8% to 102.7-million tonnes and oil entitlement production rose 57% to eight million barrels.

Against the background of Glencore reiterating its $2.5-billion-to-$2.6-billion earnings expectation for its marketing division, analysts expressed the view that concerns over marketing earnings had been “overdone”.

“We expect marketing to remain a cash cow,” Credit Suisse added.

Targeted net funding of $40-billion was described by Barclays Capital analysts as being $3-billion ahead of expectation, reflecting better-than-expected cash generation and working capital release.

Copper, zinc and lead production guidance has been lowered to reflect the announced shutdowns and coal production guidance has been cut by two-million tonnes and oil guidance tightened.

Deutsche Bank market research said the company’s operations were “humming” and described 75% of the company’s net-debt target as already being “in the bag”.

“Ironically, while the focus of the market will be on the liquidity numbers, the production report itself is strong with great performances from McArthur River, Antapaccay and, surprisingly, Katanga,” Deutsche added.

Edited by Creamer Media Reporter

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